Computer system and method for creating an event prediction model

ABSTRACT

Disclosed is a process for creating an event prediction model that employs a data-driven approach for selecting the model&#39;s input data variables, which, in one embodiment, involves selecting initial data variables, obtaining a respective set of historical data values for each respective initial data variable, determining a respective difference metric that indicates the extent to which each initial data variable tends to be predictive of an event occurrence, filtering the initial data variables, applying one or more transformations to at least two initial data variables, obtaining a respective set of historical data values for each respective transformed data variable, determining a respective difference metric that indicates the extent to which each transformed data variable tends to be predictive of an event occurrence, filtering the transformed data variables, and using the filtered, transformed data variables as a basis for selecting the input variables of the event prediction model.

BACKGROUND

Today, machines (also referred to herein as “assets”) are ubiquitous inmany industries. From locomotives that transfer cargo across countriesto farming equipment that harvest crops, assets play an important rolein everyday life. Depending on the role that an asset serves, itscomplexity, and cost, may vary.

Because of the increasing role that assets play, it is also becomingincreasingly desirable to monitor and analyze the operation of assets ina given operating environment. To facilitate this, assets may beequipped with sensors that are configured to monitor various operatingparameters of the asset and an on-asset computer that is configured tosend data indicative of these operating parameters over a network to acentral data analytics platform that is configured to analyze the data,in order to learn more about the operation of the assets.

Overview

In recent years, one primary area of focus for a data analytics platformhas become the preemptive prediction of certain types of eventoccurrences that impact asset operation, such as occurrences of failureson an asset. The main reason that preemptive prediction of eventoccurrences has become an area of focus is because unexpectedoccurrences of certain types of events may result in significantconsequences. For instance, if a failure occurs on an asset while it isin use, this may increase the time and/or cost necessary to get theasset back to an operational state, decrease productivity during thedowntime, and potentially present a safety risk to individuals inproximity to the asset at the time that it fails.

In view of the foregoing, significant time, effort, and resources arenow being dedicated to creating and deploying event prediction modelsthat are configured to predict whether event occurrences are forthcomingand then preemptively notify a user of forthcoming event occurrencessufficiently in advance of when such event occurrences actually happen,so that action can be taken to address the event occurrences before theyactually happen. In this way, an event prediction model may help tomitigate the costs that may otherwise result from an unexpectedoccurrence of an undesirable event like an asset failure—such as anincrease in maintenance cost and/or a decrease in productivity—and maythus provide a positive net business value.

In general, an event prediction model for a given type of event may beconfigured to (i) evaluate the data values for a given set of input datavariables that appear to be associated with event occurrences of thegiven type and then (ii) output a prediction of whether an eventoccurrence of the given type is forthcoming. Further, in practice, anevent prediction model for a given type of event may be configured tooutput its prediction of a forthcoming event occurrence during aparticular window of time preceding the event occurrence referred as an“event window,” which is a window of time during which a preemptiveprediction of an event occurrence of the given type is considered toprovide sufficient net value. In this respect, the beginning of an eventwindow for an event occurrence of the given type may be set to theearliest time (relative to the actual time of the forthcoming eventoccurrence) at which a preemptive notification of the event occurrenceis still expected to provide sufficient net value (e.g., 1-2 weeksbefore the event occurrence), while the end of the event window for anevent occurrence of the given type may be set to the latest time(relative to the actual time of the forthcoming event occurrence) atwhich a preemptive notification of the event occurrence is stillexpected to provide sufficient net value (e.g., 1-2 days before theevent occurrence).

In view of the foregoing, it will be appreciated that the ability of anevent prediction model to output accurate, timely predictions offorthcoming event occurrences of a given type depends in large part onthe particular set of input data variables that the event predictionmodel uses to render those predictions. Indeed, in order for a givenevent prediction model to output an accurate, timely prediction ofwhether an event occurrence is forthcoming, the model's set of inputdata variables generally should be of a nature that the data valuesthereof, either alone as is, transformed, or in some combination withone another, exhibit some indication that an event occurrence event ofthe given type is forthcoming that can be deduced by the eventprediction model (e.g., by changing in a particular way).

Therefore, one important aspect of creating an event prediction modelfor a given type of event is selecting the particular set of input datavariables that the event prediction model uses to render itspredictions. Indeed, it is usually counterproductive to train a modelwithout performing some type of input variable selection, because thereis typically a very large universe of possible input variables—many ofwhich have little or no relevance to the model's prediction—andincluding these irrelevant (or marginally-relevant) variables mayincrease computational cost and/or degrade model performance.

When selecting the input data variables for an event prediction model, aprimary goal is to identify data variables having values that provide anindication of an event occurrence of the given type sufficiently inadvance of that event occurrence, such that the event prediction modelcan detect the indication and then begin outputting its prediction thatthe event occurrence is forthcoming. For example, data variables havingvalues that meaningfully change in the window of time leading up to anevent occurrence of the given type may be good candidates to include inthe set of input data variables used by the event prediction model torender its predictions. On the other hand, data variables having valuesthat do not appear to meaningfully change in the window of time leadingup to an event occurrence of the given type may not be good candidatesto include in the set of input data variables used by the eventprediction model to render its predictions. Further, it is generallypreferable for the chosen input variables to have causal relationshipswith the outcome, as opposed to just being correlated.

However, existing technology for creating an event prediction modeltends to select the model's set of input data variables based heavily(if not exclusively) on input from a subject matter expert (SME) or thelike, which has several limitations. For example, while an SME typicallyhas knowledge regarding some possible causes of an event occurrence of agiven type (e.g., an occurrence of a given failure mode), the SME isoften incapable of identifying the entire universe of causes for anevent occurrence of the given type, and also may be unable to identifythe actual root cause of an event occurrence of the given type at agranular level. As another example, while an SME may be able to identifythat a particular behavior of data variable is correlated to an eventoccurrence of a given type, the SME may be unable to identify thespecific point in time at which the data variable's values are mostlikely to be indicative of an event occurrence of the given type. As yetanother example, an SME is typically only focused a limited set of datavariables that may be associated with event occurrences of the giventype, rather than the much larger universe of data variables that areavailable to an asset data platform (including but not limited to datavariables that are derived by the asset data platform based on rawdata). As yet another example, an SME may have knowledge of how theasset works theoretically, but oftentimes the environment in which anasset operates changes its behavior, creating new failure modes that maybe outside of the scope of an SME's knowledge. In this respect, the newbehaviors may be such that an SME's knowledge may never be able tosufficiently account for that behavior. As a result of theselimitations, the set of input data variables selected for an eventprediction model often does not include the data variables that providethe best indication of a forthcoming event occurrence of the given type,which degrades the event prediction model's ability to provide accurate,timely predictions. Thus, there is a need for technology that helpscreate a more accurate event prediction model.

To address these and other problems with existing technology, disclosedherein is a new process for creating an event prediction model thatemploys a data-driven approach for selecting the model's set of inputdata variables. For purposes of illustration, the disclosed process isdescribed herein as being carried out by a data analytics platform suchas an asset data platform, but it should be understood that some or allof the functions of the disclosed process may be carried out by anotherentity as well.

According to an example embodiment, the disclosed new process forcreating an event prediction model may begin with a data analyticsplatform receiving an initial set of parameters for the event predictionmodel to be created by the data analytics platform, which may include anidentification of the type of event to be predicted by the eventprediction model (e.g., a given failure mode for a particular class ofassets) and perhaps also an indication of the event window to be used bythe event prediction model. The data analytics platform may receive thisinitial set of parameters in various manners. As one example, the dataanalytics platform may receive the initial set of parameters from a userof the platform, who may input the initial set of parameters via aclient station coupled to the data analytics platform or a userinterface of the data analytics platform, among other possibilities.

Next, the data analytics platform may select an initial set of datavariables to use for the event prediction model (e.g., based on userinput). Generally, the initial set of data variables may comprise anydata type from among the universe of data types available to the dataanalytics platform including, for instance, (i) one or more types ofoperating data received from an asset or assets, such as one or moretypes of sensor data collected by an asset, or one or more types ofabnormal-conditions data, among other possible types of data collectedby an asset; (ii) one or more types of operating data received from anoperating data source; (iii) one or more types of maintenance datareceived from an asset maintenance data source; (iv) one or more typesof data received from an environmental data source; (v) one or moretypes of user input data received from a client station; and/or (vi) oneor more types of data that are derived based on the forgoing data types,such as roll-up data and/or features data.

Depending on the embodiment, the data analytics platform may select theinitial set of data variables in various manners. As one possibility,the data analytics platform may select the initial set of data variablesbased on input from a user of the platform, who may input a selection ofthe initial set of data variables via a client station coupled to thedata analytics platform or a user interface of the data analyticsplatform, among other possibilities. For instance, the data analyticsplatform may cause a client station to present a user with a list ofdata variables available to the data analytics platform that maypossibly serve as input data variables for the event prediction modelbeing created (e.g., data variables that have some possible associationwith the given type of event being predicted), and the user may thenselect the initial set of data types from this list, which may cause theclient station to transmit this selection to the data analyticsplatform.

As another possibility, the data analytics platform may select theinitial set of data variables based on something other than user input.For example, the data analytics platform may refer to an existing eventprediction model that shares similarities with the event predictionmodel being created (e.g., an existing event prediction model for acomparable type of event that occurs in another industry) and thenselect the initial set of data variables to be the same as or similar tothe input data variables used by that existing event prediction model.As another example, the data analytics platform may maintain or haveaccess to a data table that correlates event types with data variablesknown to be associated with those event types, in which case the dataanalytics platform may select the initial set of data variables based onsuch a data table.

The data analytics platform may select the initial set of data variablesin other manners as well, including the possibility that the dataanalytics platform may select the initial set of data variables using acombination of the techniques described above.

After the initial set of data variables have been selected, the dataanalytics platform may then optionally classify each respective datavariable in the initial set of data variables. Classifying the datavariables in the initial set of data variables may help drive some ofthe later steps in the process. For instance, as will be describedfurther herein, some steps of the disclosed process may involve usingthe classification of a given data variable as a basis to take one ormore actions with respect to the given data variable.

In one implementation, the data analytics platform may classify eachrespective data variable in the initial set of data variables based onsome predetermined data indicative of a respective classification forthe respective data variable. Depending on the embodiment, thispredetermined data may take the form of two or more possibleclassifications with the data analytics platform determining, for eachrespective data variable in the set of initial data variables, which ofthe two or more possible classifications to use for the respective datavariable. In another embodiment, this predetermined data may take theform of a hierarchy of possible classifications with multiple levels ofclassification granularity. In this embodiment, the data analyticsplatform may determine, for each respective data variable in the set ofinitial data variables, which classification or classifications from thehierarchy to use for the respective data variable.

In one real-world example of this, the data analytics platform mayclassify respective data variables according to whether a respectivedata variable is a “continuous” data variable or a “categorical” datavariable. A continuous data variable is a data variable that can have adata value that exists in a continuous range of values. Enginetemperature is one example of a data variable that may be classified ascontinuous because the value of the engine temperature variable canexist as any value in a range of between a low bound of, say, 0° C. anda high bound of, say, 600° C. Battery voltage is another example of adata variable that may be classified as continuous because the value ofthe battery voltage variable can exist as any value in a range of valuesbetween a low bound of, say, 0V and a high bound of, say, 18V. On theother hand, a categorical data variable is a data variable thattypically takes on one of a few possible discrete values or states. Adata variable indicating the presence or absence of a specific faultcondition at an asset is one example of a categorical data variablebecause the data variable takes on either one of two discrete states: an“affirmative” or “1” indicating, for instance, the presence of a faultcondition, or a “negative” or “0” indicating, for instance, the absenceof a fault condition. As mentioned, in some embodiments, the dataanalytics platform may further classify each data variable on a moregranular level, in which the data analytics platform may refer to aknown hierarchy of data variable classifications in order to furtherclassify the continuous data variables into one or more possiblesub-classifications and to further classify the categorical datavariables into one or more sub-classifications.

After the initial set of data variables have been selected andoptionally categorized, the data analytics platform may evaluate theextent to which each respective data variable in the initial set of datavariables tends to be predictive of an event occurrence of the giventype, and based on this evaluation, assign to each such data variable arespective metric (referred to herein as a “difference metric”) thatreflects this predictive tendency. These functions of evaluating andassigning respective difference metrics to the initial set of datavariables (which may be referred to collectively as “scoring” theinitial set of data variables) may take various forms.

As one possibility, the data analytics platform may begin by obtaininghistorical data values for the initial set of data variables, which mayinclude both (i) historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and (ii) historicaldata values from times that are inside an event window for an actualevent occurrence. Then, for each respective data variable in the initialset of data variables, the data analytics platform may (a) compare thehistorical data values of the respective data variable that fall outsidethe model's event window to the historical data values of the respectivedata variable that fall inside the model's event window, and (b) basedon this comparison, may derive a respective difference metric thatrepresents the extent to which the historical data values of therespective data variable changed from outside the event window to insidethe event window. In this respect, it should be appreciated that a datavariable having a relatively high difference metric indicates that thevalues of the data variable tended to meaningfully change in the windowof time leading up to an event occurrence of the given type, whichsuggests that the data variable may be more predictive of eventoccurrences of the given type. On the other hand, it should beappreciated that a data variable having a relatively low differencemetric indicates that the values of the data variable tended not tomeaningfully change in the window of the time leading up to an eventoccurrence of the given type, which suggests that the data variable maynot be particularly predictive of event occurrences of the given type.

In accordance with the present disclosure, the data analytics platformmay also employ different techniques to evaluate and assign therespective difference metrics to the initial set of data variablesdepending on the classification of the data variables. As one example toillustrate, the data analytics platform may employ different techniquesto evaluate and assign the respective difference metrics to continuousdata variables versus categorical data variables. Other examples arepossible as well.

After scoring the initial set of data variables, the data analyticsplatform may next filter the initial set of data variables based ontheir respective difference metrics to thereby arrive at a filtered,initial set of data variables that appear to be most predictive of eventoccurrences of the given type. This filtering function may take variousforms.

As one possibility, the data analytics platform may filter the initialset of data variables by comparing their respective difference metricsto a threshold difference metric (e.g., 0.5) and then selecting the datavariables in the initial set having difference metrics that are greaterthan or equal to this threshold difference metric. As anotherpossibility, the data analytics platform may filter the data variablesin the initial set of data variables by sorting the initial set of datavariables based on their respective difference metrics and thenselecting a given number of the initial data variables that have thehighest difference metrics (e.g., the top three or top five datavariables in the sorted initial set of data variables).

After filtering the initial set of data variables based on theirrespective difference metrics, the data analytics platform may apply arespective set of one or more transformations to each respective datavariable in the filtered, initial set of data variables (or at leasteach of a subset of the filtered, initial set of data variables) tothereby arrive at a transformed set of data variables. In general, atransformation is any qualitative or quantitative manipulation to atleast one data variable's values such that, once transformed, thetransformed data variable represents the at least one data variable'svalues in a different way. Examples of possible transformations of agiven data variable include the average of the given data variable'sover a time period, the rate of change of the given data variable'svalues over a time period, the logarithm of the given data variable'svalues, and the variance of the given data variable's values, amongothers. To illustrate with a real-world example, if the initial datavariable is engine temperature, one possible transformation of theengine temperature may be average engine temperature on a week-by-weekbasis.

In practice, the data analytics platform may select the respective setof one or more transformations to apply to each respective data variablein the filtered, initial set of data variables based on various factors.

As a first possibility, the data analytics platform may select therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based onthe classification of the respective data variable. For instance, eachpossible classification may have a corresponding set of one or moretransformations associated therewith. Thus, when selecting therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable, the data analytics platform may (i) identify theclassification of the respective data variable, (ii) identify the set ofone or more transformations associated with the identifiedclassification, and (iii) include the identified set of one or moretransformations in the respective set of one or more transformations toapply to the respective data variable.

As a second possibility, the data analytics platform may select therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based ondata indicating the expected behavior of the respective data variablefor the given type of event to be predicted by the event predictionmodel being created. For instance, the data analytics platform maymaintain or have access to data indicating that certain data variablesare expected to behave a certain way in the window of time preceding anevent occurrence of the given type, examples of which may include dataindicating that engine temperature is expected to rise dramaticallyprior to an engine failure and/or that engine oil viscosity is expectedto drop dramatically prior to an engine failure. Thus, the dataanalytics platform may take this expected behavior into account whenselecting the respective sets of one or more transformations for thesedata variables, such that the one or more transformations selected foreach data variable is more tailored to the expected behavior of thatvariable.

As a third possibility, the data analytics platform may select therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based on anevaluation of an existing event prediction model that sharessimilarities with the event prediction model being created (e.g., anexisting event prediction model for a similar type of event that occursin another industry). For instance, if there is existing eventprediction model that shares similarities with the event predictionmodel being created, the data analytics platform may evaluate the inputdata variables for that existing event prediction model to identify anydata variable that appears to be a transformed version of a datavariable included in the filtered, initial set of data variables. If so,the data analytics platform may then select a transformation that causesthe same transformed data variable to be included in the transformed setof data variables for the event prediction model being created.

The data analytics platform may select the respective set of one or moretransformations to apply to each respective data variable in thefiltered, initial set of data variables in various other manners aswell—including the possibility that the data analytics platform mayselect the respective set of one or more transformations to apply toeach respective data variable in the filtered, initial set of datavariables based on a combination of two or more of the foregoingfactors.

In some embodiments, in addition to applying a respective set of one ormore transformations to each respective data variable in the filtered,initial set of data variables in order to produce the transformed set ofdata variables, the data analytics platform may also “pass through” oneor more of the data variables in the filtered, initial set of datavariables, such that the one or more passed-through data variables areincluded in the transformed set of data variables as well. In thisrespect, the data analytics platform may decide whether to “passthrough” a respective data variable in the filtered, initial set of datavariables based on any of various factors, including but not limited tothe factors discussed above (e.g., the classification of the respectivedata variable, the expected behavior of the respective data variable,and/or whether the respective data variable is included as an input datavariable for a comparable event prediction model).

After defining the transformed set of data variables, the data analyticsplatform may optionally classify each respective data variable in thetransformed set of data variables in a manner similar to that describedabove for the initial set of data variables.

In turn, the data analytics platform may evaluate the extent to whicheach data variable in the transformed set of data variables tends to bepredictive of an event occurrence of the given type, and based on thisevaluation, assign to each such data variable a respective differencemetric that reflects this predictive tendency. These functions ofevaluating and assigning respective difference metrics to thetransformed set of data variables (which may be referred to collectivelyas “scoring” the transformed set of data variables) may be carried outin a similar manner to the above-described functions of evaluating andassigning respective difference metrics to the initial set of datavariables.

For instance, the data analytics platform may begin by obtaininghistorical values for the transformed set of data variables, which mayinclude both (i) historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and (ii) historicaldata values from times that are inside an event window for an actualevent occurrence. In this respect, obtaining the historical values forthe transformed set of data variables may involve deriving such valuesbased on the historical values of the initial set of data variables.Then, for each respective data variable in the transformed set of datavariables, the data analytics platform may (a) compare the historicaldata values of the respective data variable that fall outside themodel's event window to the historical data values of the respectivedata variable that fall inside the event window, and (b) based on thiscomparison, derive a respective difference metric that represents theextent to which the historical data values of the respective datavariable changed from outside the event window to inside the eventwindow. In this respect, as above, the particular technique to evaluateand assign the respective difference metrics to the respective datavariables in the transformed set of data variables may vary depending onthe classification of the respective data variables.

After scoring the transformed set of data variables, the data analyticsplatform may next filter the transformed set of data variables based ontheir respective different metrics to thereby arrive at a filtered,transformed set of data variables that appear to be most predictive ofevent occurrences of the given type. This filtering function may becarried out in a similar manner to the above-described function offiltering the initial set of data variables (e.g., by applying thresholddifference metric or selecting a given number of data variables havingthe highest difference metrics).

After filtering the transformed set of data variables, the dataanalytics platform may then proceed in one of two manners. As oneoption, the data analytics platform may decide to conclude theinput-variable-selection process, select the filtered, transformed setof data variables as the set of input variables for the event creationmodel, and proceed to the next phase of the process for creating theevent prediction model (e.g., by evaluating historical data for the setof input variables using a machine learning technique). Alternatively,as another option, the data analytics platform may decide to continuewith the input-variable-selection process by applying another round oftransformations to the filtered, transformed set of data variables—whichmay produce a second transformed set of data variables—and thenoptionally classifying, scoring, and filtering the second transformedset of data variables in order to produce a filtered, second transformedset of data variables.

Advantageously, the disclosed process for creating event predictionmodels improves upon the existing technology for creating eventprediction models, which suffers from all of the problems discussedabove. For example, unlike the existing technology for creating eventprediction models, the disclosed process utilizes an iterative,data-driven approach for selecting the particular set of input datavariables to use in an event prediction model, which may produce anevent prediction model that renders more accurate, timely predictions.As another example, the disclosed approach may leverage knowledgeregarding the classification of data variables (e.g., as embodied in adata-variable hierarchy) to help improve the iterative, data-drivenapproach for selecting the particular set of input data variables to usein an event prediction model. As yet another example, the disclosedapproach may leverage knowledge regarding existing event predictionmodels to help improve the iterative, data-driven approach for selectingthe particular set of input data variables to use in an event predictionmodel. The disclosed process provides several other improvements overexisting technology as well.

Accordingly, in one aspect, disclosed herein is a method that involves(a) selecting an initial set of data variables to consider for use asinput variables of a given event prediction model that is to predictevent occurrences of a given type, (b) for each respective data variablein the initial set of data variables, (i) obtaining a respective set ofhistorical data values of the respective data variable that includes afirst subset of historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and a second subset ofhistorical data values from times that are inside an event window for anactual event occurrence, and (ii) determining a respective differencemetric that indicates an extent to which the first subset of historicaldata values differ from the second subset of historical data values, (c)based on the respective difference metrics for the initial set of datavariables, filtering the initial set of data variables down to afiltered, initial set of data variables, (d) applying a respective setof one or more transformations to each of at least two data variables infiltered, initial set of data variables and thereby defining atransformed set of data variables, (e) for each respective data variablein the transformed set of data variables, (i) obtaining a respective setof historical data values of the respective data variable that includesa first subset of historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and a second subset ofhistorical data values from times that are inside an event window for anactual event occurrence, and (ii) determining a respective differencemetric that indicates an extent to which the first subset of historicaldata values differ from the second subset of historical data values, (f)based on the respective difference metrics for the transformed set ofdata variables, filtering the transformed set of data variables down toa filtered, transformed set of data variables, and (g) using thefiltered, transformed set of data variables as a basis for selecting theinput variables of the event prediction model.

In another aspect, disclosed herein is a computing system that includesa network interface, at least one processor, a non-transitorycomputer-readable medium, and program instructions stored on thenon-transitory computer-readable medium that are executable by the atleast one processor to cause the computing system to carry out thefunctions disclosed herein, including but not limited to the functionsof the foregoing method.

In yet another aspect, disclosed herein is a non-transitorycomputer-readable storage medium provisioned with software that isexecutable to cause a computing system to carry out the functionsdisclosed herein, including but not limited to the functions of theforegoing method.

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate these as well asnumerous other aspects in reading the following disclosure.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 depicts an example network configuration in which exampleembodiments may be implemented.

FIG. 2 depicts a simplified block diagram of an example asset dataplatform from a structural perspective.

FIG. 3 depicts a simplified block diagram of an example asset dataplatform from a functional perspective.

FIG. 4 depicts a simplified block diagram of the on-board components ofan example as set.

FIG. 5 depicts a simplified block diagram of an example local analyticsdevice.

FIG. 6 . is a flow diagram showing some example operations that may beincluded in a process for creating an event prediction models configuredto preemptively predict event occurrences of a given type, according toan example embodiment.

FIG. 7 depicts an example data variable hierarchy that may be used toclassify a set of one or more data variable, according to an exampleembodiment.

FIG. 8 . depicts a representation of a data variable space beingsearched in accordance with one example of the present disclosure.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The following disclosure makes reference to the accompanying figures andseveral example embodiments. One of ordinary skill in the art shouldunderstand that such references are for the purpose of explanation onlyand are therefore not meant to be limiting. Part or all of the disclosedsystems, devices, and methods may be rearranged, combined, added to,and/or removed in a variety of manners, each of which is contemplatedherein.

I. EXAMPLE NETWORK CONFIGURATION

Turning now to the figures, FIG. 1 depicts an example networkconfiguration 100 in which example embodiments may be implemented. Asshown, network configuration 100 includes at its core a centralcomputing system 102, which may be communicatively coupled to one ormore data sources 104 and one or more output systems 106 via respectivecommunication paths. In such an arrangement, central computing system102 may generally serve as an “asset data platform” that is configuredto perform functions to facilitate the monitoring, analysis, and/ormanagement of various types of “assets,” which may take various forms.

For instance, some representative types of assets that may be monitoredby asset data platform 102 may include transport vehicles (e.g.,locomotives, aircrafts, passenger vehicles, trucks, ships, etc.),equipment for construction, mining, farming, or the like (e.g.,excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks, earth movers, etc.), manufacturingequipment (e.g., robotics devices, conveyor systems, and/or otherassembly-line machines), electric power generation equipment (e.g., windturbines, gas turbines, coal boilers), petroleum production equipment(e.g., gas compressors, distillation columns, pipelines), and datanetwork nodes (e.g., personal computers, routers, bridges, gateways,switches, etc.), among other examples. Additionally, an asset may havevarious other characteristics that more specifically define the type ofasset, examples of which may include the asset's brand, make, model,vintage, and/or software version, among other possibilities. In thisrespect, depending on the implementation, the assets monitored by assetdata platform 102 may either be of the same type or various differenttypes. Additionally yet, the assets monitored by asset data platform 102may be arranged into one or more “fleets” of assets, which refers to anygroup or two or more assets that are related to one another in somemanner (regardless of whether such assets are of the same type).

Broadly speaking, asset data platform 102 may comprise one or morecomputing systems that have been provisioned with software for carryingout one or more of the platform functions disclosed herein, includingbut not limited to receiving data related to the operation and/ormanagement of assets (broadly referred to herein as “asset-relateddata”) from data sources 104, performing data ingestion and/or dataanalytics operations on the asset-related data received from asset datasources 104, and then outputting data and/or instructions related to theoperation and/or management of assets to output systems 106. The one ormore computing systems of asset data platform 102 may take various formsand be arranged in various manners.

For instance, as one possibility, asset data platform 102 may comprisecomputing infrastructure of a public, private, and/or hybrid cloud(e.g., computing and/or storage clusters) that has been provisioned withsoftware for carrying out one or more of the platform functionsdisclosed herein. In this respect, the entity that owns and operatesasset data platform 102 may either supply its own cloud infrastructureor may obtain the cloud infrastructure from a third-party provider of“on demand” computing resources, such include Amazon Web Services (AWS),Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, or the like. As anotherpossibility, asset data platform 102 may comprise one or more dedicatedservers that have been provisioned with software for carrying out one ormore of the platform functions disclosed herein. Other implementationsof asset data platform 102 are possible as well.

Further, in practice, the software for carrying out the disclosedplatform functions may take various forms. As one possibility, theplatform software may comprise executable program instructions thatcause asset data platform 102 to perform data ingestion operations onasset-related data received from data sources 104, including but notlimited to extraction, transformation, and loading operations, amongother examples. As another possibility, the platform software maycomprise executable program instructions that cause asset data platform102 to perform data analytics operations based on the asset-related datareceived from data sources 104, including but not limited to failureprediction, anomaly detection, fuel management, noise filtering, imageanalysis, predictive recommendations, and label correction, among otherexamples. As yet another possibility, the platform software may compriseexecutable program instructions that cause asset data platform 102 tooutput data and/or instructions related to the operation and/ormanagement of assets for receipt by one or more output systems 106.

As one specific example, the platform software may comprise executableprogram instructions for outputting data related to the operation and/ormanagement of assets that is to be presented to a user (e.g.,asset-related data received from data sources 104 and/or the results ofthe data analytics operations performed by asset data platform 102), andthese program instructions may take the form of discrete “applications”that are each tailored for particular end users, particular groups ofassets, and/or particular purposes. Some representative examples of suchapplications may include an asset performance management application, anasset fleet management application, a service optimization application,and an asset dealer operations application, among other possibilities.

The software for carrying out the disclosed platform functions may takevarious other forms as well.

As described above, asset data platform 102 may be configured to receiveasset-related data from one or more data sources 104. These datasources—and the asset-related data output by such data sources—may takevarious forms. To illustrate, FIG. 1 shows some representative examplesof data sources 104 that may provide asset-related data to asset dataplatform 102, which are discussed in further detail below. However, itshould be understood that these example data sources are merely providedfor purposes of illustration, and that asset data platform 102 may beconfigured to receive asset-related data from other types of datasources as well.

For instance, one type of data source 104 may take the form of an asset104A, which may be equipped with components that are configured tocapture data that is indicative of the operation of the asset—referredto herein as “operating data”—and then transmit the asset's operatingdata to asset data platform 102 over the respective communication pathbetween asset 104A and asset data platform 102. In this respect, asset104A may take any of the various forms described above, including butnot limited to a transport vehicle, heavy equipment, manufacturingequipment, electric power generation equipment, and/or petroleumproduction equipment, among other types of assets. Further, it should beunderstood that the components of asset 104A for capturing andtransmitting the asset's operating data either may be included as partof asset 104A as manufactured or may be affixed to asset 104A at somelater date, among other possibilities.

The operating data that is captured and sent by asset 104A may takevarious forms. As one possibility, an asset's operating data may includesensor data that comprises time-series measurements for certainoperating parameters of the asset, examples of which may include speed,velocity, acceleration, location, weight, temperature, pressure,friction, vibration, power usage, throttle position, fluid usage, fluidlevel, voltage, current, magnetic field, electric field, presence orabsence of objects, current position of a component, and powergeneration, among many others. As another possibility, an asset'soperating data may include abnormal-conditions data that indicatesoccurrences of discrete abnormal conditions at the asset, examples ofwhich include fault codes that indicate the occurrence of certain faultsat the asset (e.g., when an operating parameter exceeds a threshold),asset shutdown indicators, and/or other types of abnormal-conditionindicators. As yet another possibility, an asset's operating data mayinclude data that has been derived from the asset's sensor data and/orabnormal-conditions data, examples of which may include “roll-up” data(e.g., an average, mean, median, etc. of the raw measurements for anoperating parameter over a given time window) and “features” data (e.g.,data values that are derived based on the raw measurements of two ormore of the asset's operating parameters). An asset's operating data maytake various other forms as well.

In practice, an asset's operating data may also include or be associatedwith data that identifies the origin of the operating data. This origindata may take various forms. For example, such origin data may includeidentifying information for the originating asset (e.g., an asset IDand/or data indicating the asset's type, brand, make, model, age,software version, etc.) and/or identifying information for the componentof asset 104A that captured the operating data (e.g., a sensor ID),among other possibilities. As another example, such origin data mayinclude data indicating the time at which the operating data wascaptured (e.g., a timestamp) and/or the asset's location when theoperating data was captured (e.g., GPS coordinates), to the extent thatsuch location is not otherwise included in the operating data. Assetdata platform 102 may receive other types of data from asset 104A aswell.

Further, asset data platform 102 may be configured to receive operatingdata from asset 104A in various manners. As one possibility, asset 104Amay be configured to send its operating data to asset data platform 102in a batch fashion, in which case asset data platform 102 may receiveperiodic transmissions of operating data from asset 104A (e.g., on anhourly, daily, or weekly basis). As another possibility, asset dataplatform 102 may receive operating data from asset 104A in a streamingfashion as such operating data is captured by asset 104A. As yet anotherpossibility, asset data platform 102 may receive operating data fromasset 104A in response to sending a request for such data to asset 104A,in which case asset data platform 102 may be configured to periodicallysend requests for operating data to asset 104A. Asset data platform 102may be configured to receive operating data from asset 104A in othermanners as well.

Another type of data source 104 may take the form of operating datasource 104B, which may comprise a computing system that is configured toreceive operating data from one or more upstream sources of operatingdata (e.g., assets) and then provide this operating data to asset dataplatform 102 over the respective communication path between operatingdata source 104B and asset data platform 102. Such an operating datasource may take various forms. As one possibility, operating data source104B may comprise an existing data platform of a third-partyorganization that receives and/or maintains operating data for one ormore assets, such as a data platform operated by an asset owner, anasset dealer, an asset manufacturer, an asset repair shop, or the like.As another possibility, operating data source 104B may comprise anintermediary system that compiles operating data from a plurality ofupstream sources of operating data and then provides that compiledoperating data to asset data platform 102. For example, such anintermediary system may take the form of a computing system located inproximity to a fleet of assets (e.g., at a job site or wind farm) thatis configured to compile operating data for the fleet of assets or acomputing system that is configured to compile operating data maintainedby several third-party data platforms, among other possibilities.Operating data source 104B may take other forms as well.

The operating data that is maintained and sent by operating data source104B may take various forms, including but not limited to any of theforms described above. In addition to the operating data received fromthe one or more upstream sources, the operating data provided byoperating data source 104B may also include additional operating datathat is generated by operating data source 104B itself, such asoperating data that operating data sources 104B derives based on theoperating data received from the one or more upstream sources (e.g.,abnormal-conditions data, roll-up data, features data, etc.).

Further, as with asset 104A, asset data platform 102 may be configuredto receive operating data from operating data source 104B in variousmanners. As one possibility, operating data source 104B may beconfigured to send its operating data to asset data platform 102 in abatch fashion, in which case asset data platform 102 may receiveperiodic transmissions of operating data from operating data source 104B(e.g., on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis). As another possibility,asset data platform 102 may receive operating data from operating datasource 104B in a streaming fashion as such operating data is receivedand/or otherwise generated by operating data source 104B. As yet anotherpossibility, asset data platform 102 may receive operating data fromoperating data source 104B in response to sending a request for suchdata to operating data source 104B, in which case asset data platform102 may be configured to periodically send requests for operating datato operating data source 104B. As still another possibility, asset dataplatform 102 may receive operating data from operating data source 104Bby accessing an Application Programming Interface (API) that has beenmade available by operating data source 104B, subscribing to a serviceprovided by operating data source 104B, or the like. Asset data platform102 may be configured to receive operating data from operating datasource 104B in other manners as well.

Yet another type of data source 104 may take the form of an assetmaintenance data source 104C, which may comprise a computing system thatis configured to generate and/or receive data related to the maintenanceof a plurality of assets—referred to herein as “maintenance data”—andthen send this maintenance data to asset data platform 102 over therespective communication path between asset maintenance data source 104Cand asset data platform 102. In this respect, asset maintenance datasource 104C may take various forms. As one possibility, assetmaintenance data source 104C may comprise an existing data platform of athird-party organization that is interested in tracking the maintenanceof assets, such as an asset owner, asset dealer, asset manufacturer,asset repair shop, or the like. As another possibility, assetmaintenance data source 104C may comprise an intermediary system thatcompiles asset maintenance data from multiple upstream sources (e.g.,multiple repair shops) and then provides that compiled maintenance datato asset data platform 102. Asset maintenance data source 104C may takeother forms as well.

The asset maintenance data that is maintained and sent by assetmaintenance data source 104C may take various forms. As one example, theasset maintenance data may include details regarding inspections,maintenance, servicing, and/or repairs that have been performed or arescheduled to be performed on assets (e.g., work order data). As anotherexample, the asset maintenance data may include details regarding knownoccurrences of failures at assets (e.g., date of failure occurrence,type of failure occurrence, etc.). Other examples are possible as well.As with the operating data, the asset maintenance data may also includeor be associated with data indicating the origins of the assetmaintenance data (e.g., source identifier, timestamp, etc.).

Further, asset data platform 102 may be configured to receive operatingdata from asset maintenance data source 104C in various manners,including but not limited to any of the manners discussed above withrespect to operating data source 104B.

Still another type of data source 104 may take the form of environmentaldata source 104D, which may comprise a computing system that isconfigured to generate and/or receive data about an environment in whichassets operate—referred to herein as “environmental data”—and then sendthis data to asset data platform 102 over the respective communicationpath between environmental data source 104D and asset data platform 102.In this respect, environmental data source 104D— and the environmentaldata provided thereby—may take various forms.

As one possibility, environmental data source 104D may take the form ofa weather data source that provides information regarding the weather atlocations where assets operate (e.g., ambient temperature, air pressure,humidity, wind direction, wind speed, etc.). As another possibility,environmental data source 104D may take the form of a geospatial datasource that provides information regarding the geography and/or topologyat locations where assets operate. As yet another possibility,environmental data source 104D may take the form of a satellite imagedata source that provides satellite imagery for locations where assetsoperate. As still another possibility, environmental data source 104Dmay take the form of a traffic data source that provides informationregarding ground, air, and/or water traffic at locations where assetsoperate. Environmental data source 104D may take other forms as well.

Further, in practice, asset data platform 102 may be configured toreceive operating data from asset environmental data source 104D invarious manners, including but not limited to any of the mannersdiscussed above with respect to operating data source 104B.

Another type of data source 104 may take the form of client station104E, which may comprise any computing device that is configured toreceive user input related to the operation and/or management of assets(e.g., information entered by a fleet operator, a repair technician, orthe like) and then send that user input to asset data platform 102 overthe respective communication path between client station 104E and assetdata platform 102. In this respect, client station 104E may take any ofvarious forms, examples of which may include a desktop computer, alaptop, a netbook, a tablet, a smartphone, and/or a personal digitalassistant (PDA), among other possibilities.

The user input that is entered into client station 104E and sent toasset data platform 102 may comprise various different kinds ofinformation, including but not limited to the kinds of informationdiscussed above with respect to the other data sources. For instance, asone possibility, the user input may include certain kinds of operatingdata, maintenance data, and/or environmental data that may be input intoasset data platform 102 by a user rather than being received from one ofthe aforementioned data sources. As another possibility, the user inputmay include certain user-defined settings or logic that is to be used byasset data platform 102 when performing data ingestion and/or dataanalytics operations. The user input that is entered into client station104E and sent to asset data platform 102 may take various other forms aswell.

The aforementioned data sources 104 are merely provided for purposes ofillustration, and it should be understood that the asset data platform'sdata sources may take various other forms as well. For instance, whileFIG. 1 shows several different types of data sources 104, it should beunderstood that asset data platform 102 need not be configured toreceive asset-related data from all of these different types of datasources, and in fact, asset data platform 102 could be configured toreceive asset-related data from as little as a single data source 104.Further, while data sources 104A-E have been shown and describedseparately, it should be understood that these data sources may becombined together as part of the same physical computing system (e.g.,an organization's existing data platform may serve as both operatingdata source 104B and maintenance data source 104C). Further yet, itshould be understood that asset data platform 102 may be configured toreceive other types of data related to the operation and/or managementof assets as well, examples of which may include asset management data(e.g., route schedules and/or operational plans), enterprise data (e.g.,point-of-sale (POS) data, customer relationship management (CRM) data,enterprise resource planning (ERP) data, etc.), and/or financial marketsdata, among other possibilities.

As shown in FIG. 1 , asset data platform 102 may also be configured tooutput asset-related data and/or instructions for receipt by one or moreoutput systems 106. These output systems—and the data and/orinstructions provided to such output systems—may take various forms. Toillustrate, FIG. 1 shows some representative examples of output systems106 that may receive asset-related data and/or instructions from assetdata platform 102, which are discussed in further detail below. However,it should be understood that these example output systems are merelyprovided for purposes of illustration, and that asset data platform 102may be configured to output asset-related data and/or instructions toother types of output systems as well.

For instance, one type of output system 106 may take the form of clientstation 106A, which may comprise any computing device that is configuredto receive asset-related data from asset data platform 102 over therespective communication path between client station 106A and asset dataplatform 102 and then present such data to a user (e.g., via a front-endapplication that is defined by asset data platform 102). In thisrespect, client station 106A may take any of various forms, examples ofwhich may include a desktop computer, a laptop, a netbook, a tablet, asmartphone, and/or a PDA, among other possibilities. Further, it shouldbe understood that client station 106A could either be a differentdevice than client station 104E or could be the same device as clientstation 104E.

The asset-related data that is output for receipt by client station 106Amay take various forms. As one example, this asset-related data mayinclude a restructured version of asset-related data that was receivedby asset data platform 102 from one or more data sources 104 (e.g.,operating data, maintenance data, etc.). As another example, thisasset-related data may include data that is generated by asset dataplatform 102 based on the asset-related data received from data sources104, such as data resulting from the data analytics operations performedby asset data platform 102 (e.g., predicted failures, recommendations,alerts, etc.). Other examples are possible as well.

Along with the asset-related data that is output for receipt by clientstation 106A, asset data platform 102 may also output associated dataand/or instructions that define the visual appearance of a front-endapplication (e.g., a graphical user interface (GUI)) through which theasset-related data is to be presented on client station 106A. Such dataand/or instructions for defining the visual appearance of a front-endapplication may take various forms, examples of which may includeHypertext Markup Language (HTML), Cascading Style Sheets (CSS), and/orJavaScript, among other possibilities. However, depending on thecircumstance, it is also possible that asset data platform 102 mayoutput asset-related data to client station 106A without any associateddata and/or instructions for defining the visual appearance of afront-end application.

Further, client station 106A may receive asset-related data from assetdata platform 102 in various manners. As one possibility, client station106A may send a request to asset data platform 102 for certainasset-related data and/or a certain front-end application, and clientstation 106A may then receive asset-related data in response to such arequest. As another possibility, asset data platform 102 may beconfigured to “push” certain types of asset-related data to clientstation 106A, such as scheduled or event-based alerts, in which caseclient station 106A may receive asset-related data from asset dataplatform 102 in this manner. As yet another possibility, asset dataplatform 102 may be configured to make certain types of asset-relateddata available via an API, a service, or the like, in which case clientstation 106A may receive asset-related data from asset data platform 102by accessing such an API or subscribing to such a service. Clientstation 106A may receive asset-related data from asset data platform 102in other manners as well.

Another type of output system 106 may take the form of a data platform106B operated by a third-party organization that may be interested inthe operation and/or management of assets, such as an asset owner, anasset dealer, an asset manufacturer, an asset repair shop, or the like.For instance, a third-party organization such as this may have its owndata platform 106B that already enables users to access and/or interactwith asset-related data through front-end applications that have beencreated by the third-party organization, but data platform 106B may notbe programmed with the capability to ingest certain types ofasset-related data or perform certain types of data analyticsoperations. In such a scenario, asset data platform 102 may beconfigured to output certain asset-related data for receipt by dataplatform 106B.

The asset-related data that is output for receipt by data platform 106Bmay take various forms, including but not limited any of the formsdescribed above in connection with the output to client station 106A.However, unlike for client station 104A, the asset-related data that isoutput for receipt by data platform 106B typically need not include anyassociated data and/or instructions for defining the visual appearanceof a front-end application, because data platform 106B may be performingoperations on the asset-related data from asset data platform 102 beyondpresenting it to a user via a front-end application.

Further, data platform 106B may receive asset-related data from assetdata platform 102 in various manners, including but not limited to anyof the manners discussed above with respect to client station 106A(e.g., by sending a request to asset data platform 102, having data“pushed” by asset data platform, or accessing an API or service providedby asset data platform 102).

Yet another type of output system 106 may take the form of asset 106C,which may be equipped with components that are configured to receiveasset-related data and/or instructions from asset data platform 102 andthen act in accordance with the received data and/or instructions. Inthis respect, asset 106C may take any of the various forms describedabove, including but not limited to a transport vehicle, heavyequipment, manufacturing equipment, electric power generation equipment,and/or petroleum production equipment, among other types of assets.Further, it should be understood that asset 106C could either be adifferent asset than asset 104A or could be the same asset as asset104A.

The asset-related data and/or instructions that are output for receiptby asset 106C may take various forms. As one example, asset dataplatform 102 may be configured to send asset 106C certain data that hasbeen generated by asset data platform 102 based on the asset-relateddata received from data sources 104, such as data resulting from a dataanalytics operation performed by asset data platform 102 (e.g.,predicted failures, recommendations, alerts, etc.), in which case asset106C may receive this data and then potentially adjust its operation insome way based on the received data. As another example, asset dataplatform 102 may be configured to generate and send an instruction forasset 106C to adjust its operation in some way (e.g., based on theasset-related data received from data sources 104), in which case asset106C may receive this instruction and then potentially adjust itsoperation in accordance with the instruction. As yet another example,asset data platform 102 may be configured to generate and send aninstruction for asset 106C to perform a data analytics operation locallyat asset 106C, in which case asset 106C may receive the instruction andthen locally perform the data analytics operation. In some cases, inconjunction with sending asset 106C an instruction to perform a dataanalytics operation, asset data platform 102 may also provide asset 106Cwith executable program instructions and/or program data that enableasset 106C to perform the data analytics operation (e.g., a predictivemodel). However, in other cases, asset 106C may already be provisionedwith executable program instructions for performing the data analyticsoperation. Other examples are possible as well.

Further, in practice, asset 106C may receive asset-related data and/orinstructions from asset data platform 102 in various manners, includingbut not limited to any of the manners discussed above with respect toclient station 106A.

Still another type of output system 106 may take the form of work-ordersystem 106D, which may comprise a computing system that is configured toreceive asset-related data and/or instructions from asset data platform102 over the respective communication path between work-order system106D and asset data platform 102 and then generate a work order inaccordance with the received data and/or instructions.

A further type of output system 106 may take the form of parts-orderingsystem 106E, which may comprise a computing system that is configured toreceive asset-related data and/or instructions from asset data platform102 over the respective communication path between parts-ordering system106E and asset data platform 102 and then generate a parts order inaccordance with the received data and/or instructions.

The aforementioned output systems 106 are merely provided for purposesof illustration, and it should be understood that output systems incommunication with asset data platform 102 may take various other formsas well. For instance, while FIG. 1 shows several different types ofoutput systems 106, it should be understood that asset data platform 102need not be configured to output asset-related data and/or instructionsfor receipt by all of these different types of output systems, and infact, asset data platform 102 could be configured to asset-related dataand/or instructions for receipt by as little as a single output system106. Further, while output systems 106A-E have been shown and describedseparately, it should be understood that these output systems may becombined together as part of the same physical computing system. Furtheryet, it should be understood that asset data platform 102 may beconfigured to output asset-related data and/or instructions for receiptby other types of output systems as well.

As discussed above, asset data platform 102 may communicate with the oneor more data sources 104 and one or more output systems 106 overrespective communication paths. Each of these communication paths maygenerally comprise one or more communication networks and/orcommunications links, which may take any of various forms. For instance,each respective communication path with asset data platform 102 mayinclude any one or more of point-to-point links, Personal Area Networks(PANs), Local-Area Networks (LANs), Wide-Area Networks (WANs) such asthe Internet or cellular networks, cloud networks, and/or operationaltechnology (OT) networks, among other possibilities. Further, thecommunication networks and/or links that make up each respectivecommunication path with asset data platform 102 may be wireless, wired,or some combination thereof, and may carry data according to any ofvarious different communication protocols.

Although not shown, the respective communication paths with asset dataplatform 102 may also include one or more intermediate systems. Forexample, it is possible that a given data source 104 may sendasset-related data to one or more intermediary systems, such as anaggregation system, and asset data platform 102 may then be configuredto receive the asset-related data from the one or more intermediarysystems. As another example, it is possible that asset data platform 102may communicate with a given output system 106 via one or moreintermediary systems, such as a host server (not shown). Many otherconfigurations are also possible.

It should be understood that network configuration 100 is one example ofa network configuration in which embodiments described herein may beimplemented. Numerous other arrangements are possible and contemplatedherein. For instance, other network configurations may includeadditional components not pictured and/or more or less of the picturedcomponents.

II. EXAMPLE PLATFORM

FIG. 2 is a simplified block diagram illustrating some structuralcomponents that may be included in an example computing platform 200,which could serve as asset data platform 102 in FIG. 1 . In line withthe discussion above, platform 200 may generally comprise one or morecomputer systems (e.g., one or more servers), and these one or morecomputer systems may collectively include at least a processor 202, datastorage 204, and a communication interface 206, all of which may becommunicatively linked by a communication link 208 that may take theform of a system bus, a communication network such as a public, private,or hybrid cloud, or some other connection mechanism.

Processor 202 may comprise one or more processor components, such asgeneral-purpose processors (e.g., a single- or multi-coremicroprocessor), special-purpose processors (e.g., anapplication-specific integrated circuit or digital-signal processor),programmable logic devices (e.g., a field programmable gate array),controllers (e.g., microcontrollers), and/or any other processorcomponents now known or later developed. In line with the discussionabove, it should also be understood that processor 202 could compriseprocessing components that are distributed across a plurality ofphysical computing devices connected via a network, such as a computingcluster of a public, private, or hybrid cloud.

In turn, data storage 204 may comprise one or more non-transitorycomputer-readable storage mediums, examples of which may includevolatile storage mediums such as random-access memory, registers, cache,etc. and non-volatile storage mediums such as read-only memory, ahard-disk drive, a solid-state drive, flash memory, an optical-storagedevice, etc. In line with the discussion above, it should also beunderstood that data storage 204 may comprise computer-readable storagemediums that are distributed across a plurality of physical computingdevices connected via a network, such as a storage cluster of a public,private, or hybrid cloud that operates according to technologies such asAWS for Elastic Compute Cloud, Simple Storage Service, etc.

As shown in FIG. 2 , data storage 204 may be provisioned with softwarecomponents that enable the platform 200 to carry out the functionsdisclosed herein. These software components may generally take the formof program instructions that are executable by the processor 202 tocarry out the disclosed functions, which may be arranged together intosoftware applications, virtual machines, software development kits,toolsets, or the like.

Further, data storage 204 may be arranged to store asset-related data inone or more databases, file systems, or the like. For example, datastorage 204 may be configured to store data using technologies suchApache Cassandra, Apache Hadoop, PostgreSQL, and/or MongoDB, among otherpossibilities. Data storage 204 may take other forms and/or store datain other manners as well.

Communication interface 206 may be configured to facilitate wirelessand/or wired communication with data sources and output systems, such asdata sources 104 and output systems 106 in FIG. 1 . Additionally, in animplementation where platform 200 comprises a plurality of physicalcomputing devices connected via a network, communication interface 206may be configured to facilitate wireless and/or wired communicationbetween these physical computing devices (e.g., between computing andstorage clusters in a cloud network). As such, communication interface206 may take any suitable form for carrying out these functions,examples of which may include an Ethernet interface, a serial businterface (e.g., Firewire, USB 2.0, etc.), a chipset and antenna adaptedto facilitate wireless communication, and/or any other interface thatprovides for wireless and/or wired communication. Communicationinterface 206 may also include multiple communication interfaces ofdifferent types. Other configurations are possible as well.

Although not shown, platform 200 may additionally include one or moreinterfaces that provide connectivity with external user-interfaceequipment (sometimes referred to as “peripherals”), such as a keyboard,a mouse or trackpad, a display screen, a touch-sensitive interface, astylus, a virtual-reality headset, speakers, etc., which may allow fordirect user interaction with platform 200.

It should be understood that platform 200 is one example of a computingplatform that may be used with the embodiments described herein.Numerous other arrangements are possible and contemplated herein. Forinstance, other computing platforms may include additional componentsnot pictured and/or more or less of the pictured components.

Referring now to FIG. 3 , another simplified block diagram is providedto illustrate some functional systems that may be included in an exampleplatform 300. For instance, as shown, the example platform 300 mayinclude a data ingestion system 302, a platform interface system 304, adata analysis system 306, a front-end system 308, and one or more datastores 310, each of which comprises a combination of software andhardware that is configured to carry out particular functions. In linewith the discussion above, these functional systems may be implementedon one or more computing systems, which may take the form of computinginfrastructure of a public, private, and/or hybrid cloud or one or morededicated servers, among other possibilities.

At a high level, data ingestion system 302 may be configured to ingestasset-related data received from the platform's one or more datasources, transform the ingested data into a standardized structure, andthen pass the ingested data to platform interface system 304. In thisrespect, the function of ingesting received data may be referred to asthe “extraction” (or “acquisition”) stage within data ingestion system302, the function of transforming the ingested data into a desiredstructure may be referred to as the “transformation” stage within dataingestion system 302, and the function of passing the ingested data toplatform interface system 304 may be referred to as the “load” stagewithin data ingestion system 302. (Alternatively, these functions maycollectively be referred to as the ETL stage). In some embodiments, dataingestion system 302 may also be configured to enhance the ingested databefore passing it to platform interface system 304. This function ofenhancing the ingested data may be referred to as the “enhancement”stage within data ingestion system 302. However, data ingestion system302 may take various other forms and perform various other functions aswell.

At the extraction stage, data ingestion system 302 may be configured toreceive and ingest various types of asset-related data from varioustypes of data sources, including but not limited to the types ofasset-related data and data sources 104 discussed above with referenceto FIG. 1 . Further, in line with the discussion above, data ingestionsystem 302 may be configured to receive asset-related data from a datasource in various manners. For instance, one possibility, data ingestionsystem 302 may be configured to receive batch transmissions ofasset-related data from a data source. As another possibility, dataingestion system 302 may be configured to receive asset-related datafrom a data source in a streaming fashion. As yet another possibility,data ingestion system 302 may be configured to receive asset-relateddata from a data source in response to sending a request for such datato the data source, in which case data ingestion system 302 may beconfigured to periodically send requests for asset-related data to thedata source. As still another possibility, data ingestion system 302 mayreceive asset-related data from a data source by subscribing to aservice provided by the data source (e.g., via an API or the like). Dataingestion system 302 may be configured to receive asset-related datafrom a data source in other manners as well.

Before data ingestion system 302 receives asset-related data fromcertain data sources, there may also be some configuration that needs totake place at such data sources. For example, a data source may beconfigured to output the particular set of asset-related data that is ofinterest to platform 300. To assist with this process, the data sourcemay be provisioned with a data agent 312, which generally comprises asoftware component that functions to access asset-related data at thegiven data source, place the data in the appropriate format, and thenfacilitate the transmission of that data to platform 300 for receipt bydata ingestion system 302. In other cases, however, the data sources maybe capable of accessing, formatting, and transmitting asset-related datato platform 300 without the assistance of a data agent.

Turning to the transformation phase, data ingestion system 302 maygenerally be configured to map and transform ingested data into one ormore predefined data structures, referred to as “schemas,” in order tostandardize the ingested data. As part of this transformation stage,data ingestion system 302 may also drop any data that cannot be mappedto a schema.

In general, a schema is an enforceable set of rules that define themanner in which data is to be structured in a given system, such as adata platform, a data store, etc. For example, a schema may define adata structure comprising an ordered set of data fields that each have arespective field identifier (e.g., a name) and a set of parametersrelated to the field's value (e.g., a data type, a unit of measure,etc.). In such an example, the ingested data may be thought of as asequence of data records, where each respective data record includes arespective snapshot of values for the defined set of fields. The purposeof a schema is to define a clear contract between systems to helpmaintain data quality, which indicates the degree to which data isconsistent and semantically correct.

In some implementations, data ingestion system 302 may also beconfigured to map and transform different types of asset-related data todifferent schemas. For instance, if the asset-related data received fromdifferent data sources is to be input into different types of dataanalytics operations that have different input formats, it may beadvantageous to map and transform such asset-related data received fromthe different data sources to different schemas.

As part of the transformation stage, data ingestion system 302 may alsobe configured to perform various other quality checks on theasset-related data before passing it to platform interface system 304.For example, data ingestion system 302 may assess the reliability (or“health”) of certain ingested data and take certain actions based onthis reliability, such as dropping any unreliable data. As anotherexample, data ingestion system 302 may “de-dup” certain ingested data bycomparing it against data that has already been received by platform 300and then ignoring or dropping duplicative data. As yet another example,data ingestion system 302 may determine that certain ingested data isrelated to data already stored in the platform's data stores (e.g., adifferent version of the same data) and then merge the ingested data andstored data together into one data structure or record. Data ingestionsystem 302 may perform other types of quality checks as well.

It should also be understood that certain data ingested by dataingestion system 302 may not be transformed to a predefined schema(i.e., it is possible that certain ingested data will be “passedthrough” without performing any transformation on the data), in whichcase platform 300 may operate on this ingested data as it exists in itsoriginal data structure.

As noted above, in some embodiments, data ingestion system 302 may alsoinclude an “enhancement” stage where data ingestion system 302 enhancesthe ingested data before passing it to platform interface system 304. Inthis respect, data ingestion system 302 may enhance the ingested data invarious manners. For instance, data ingestion system 302 may supplementthe ingested data with additional asset-related data that is derived byand/or otherwise accessible to platform 300. Such additional data maytake various forms. As one example, if the ingested data comprisessensor data, data ingestion system 302 may be configured to supplementthe sensor data with “roll-up” data and/or “features” data that isderived from the sensor data. As another possible example, dataingestion system 302 may generate and append certain “enrichments” tothe ingested data, examples of which are described in U.S. applicationSer. No. 16/004,652, which is incorporated by reference herein in itsentirety. Data ingestion system 302 may enhance the ingested data inother manners as well.

After data ingestion system 302 has performed any appropriatetransformation and/or enhancement operations on the ingested data, itmay pass the ingested data to platform interface system 304, which maybe configured to receive data from data ingestion system 302, store thereceived data in one or more of data stores 310, and make the dataavailable for consumption by the other functional systems of platform300—including data analysis system 306 and/or front-end system 308. Inthis respect, the function of passing the ingested data from dataingestion system 302 to platform interface system 304 may take variousforms.

According to an example implementation, data ingestion system 302 maybegin by categorizing the ingested data into separate data categories(or “domains”) that are to be consumed separately by the platform'sother functional systems. In turn, data ingestion system 302 may publishthe data within each category to a corresponding interface (e.g., an APIor the like) that is provided by platform interface system 304. However,it should be understood that other approaches for passing the ingesteddata from data ingestion system 302 to platform interface system 304 maybe used as well, including the possibility that data ingestion system302 may simply publish the ingested data to a given interface ofplatform interface system 304 without any prior categorization of theingested data.

After platform interface system 304 receives the ingested data from dataingestion system 302, platform interface system 304 may cause that datato be stored at the appropriate data stores 310 within platform 300. Forinstance, in the event that platform interface system 304 is configuredto receive different categories of ingested data, platform interfacesystem 304 may be configured store data from a first category into afirst data store 310, store data from a second category into a seconddata store 310, and so on. In addition, platform interface system 304may store an archival copy of the ingested data into an archival datastore 310. Platform interface system 304 may store the ingested data inother manners as well.

After receiving the ingested data from data ingestion system 302,platform interface system 304 may also make the ingested data availablefor consumption by the platform's other functional systems—includingdata analysis system 306 and front-end system 308. In this respect,platform interface system 304 may make the ingested data available forconsumption in various manners, including through the use of messagequeues or the like.

After consuming data from platform interface system 304, data analysissystem 306 may generally function to perform data analytics operationson such data and then pass the results of those data analyticsoperations back to platform interface system 304. These data analyticsoperations performed by data analysis system 306 may take various forms.

As one possibility, data analysis system 306 may create and/or executepredictive models related to asset operation based on asset-related datareceived from one or more data sources, such as predictive models thatare configured to predict occurrences of failures at an asset. Oneexample of a predictive model that may be created and executed by dataanalysis system 306 is described in U.S. application Ser. No.14/732,258, which is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety.

As another possibility, data analysis system 306 may create and/orexecute models for detecting anomalies in asset-related data receivedfrom one or more data sources. Some examples of anomaly detection modelsthat may be created and executed by data analysis system 306 aredescribed in U.S. application Ser. Nos. 15/367,012 and 15/788,622, whichare incorporated by reference herein in their entirety.

As yet another possibility, data analysis system 306 may be configuredto create and/or execute other types of data analytics programs based onasset-related data received from one or more data sources, examples ofwhich include data analytics programs that evaluate asset-related datausing a set of predefined rules (e.g., threshold-based rules), dataanalytics programs that generate predictive recommendations, dataanalytics programs that perform noise filtering, and data analyticsprograms that perform image analysis, among other possibilities.

The data analytics operations performed by data analysis system 306 maytake various other forms as well.

Further, it should be understood that some of the data analyticsoperations discussed above may involve the use of machine learningtechniques, examples of which may include regression, random forest,support vector machines (SVM), artificial neural networks, Naïve Bayes,decision trees, dimensionality reduction, k-nearest neighbor (kNN),gradient boosting, clustering, and association, among otherpossibilities.

As discussed above, after performing its data analytics operations, dataanalysis system 306 may then pass the results of those operations backto platform interface system 304, which may store the results in theappropriate data store 310 and make such results available forconsumption by the platform's other functional systems—including dataanalysis system 306 and front-end system 308.

In turn, front-end system 308 may generally be configured to drivefront-end applications that may be presented to a user via a clientstation (e.g., client station 106A). Such front-end applications maytake various forms. For instance, as discussed above, some possiblefront-end applications for platform 300 may include an asset performancemanagement application, an asset fleet management application, a serviceoptimization application, and/or an asset dealer operations application,among other possibilities.

In practice, front-end system 308 may generally function to accesscertain asset-related data from platform interface system 304 that is tobe presented to a user as part of a front-end application and thenprovide such data to the client station along with associated dataand/or instructions that define the visual appearance of the front-endapplication. Additionally, front-end system 308 may function to receiveuser input that is related to the front-end applications for platform300, such as user requests and/or user data. Additionally yet, front-endsystem 308 may support a software development kit (SDK) or the like thatallows a user to create customized front-end applications for platform300. Front-end system 308 may perform other functions as well.

Platform 300 may also include other functional systems that are notshown. For instance, although not shown, platform 300 may include one ormore additional functional systems that are configured to outputasset-related data and/or instructions for receipt by other outputsystems, such as third-party data platforms, assets, work-order systems,parts-ordering systems, or the like.

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the exampleplatform shown in FIGS. 2-3 is but one example of a simplifiedrepresentation of the structural components and/or functional systemsthat may be included in a platform, and that numerous others are alsopossible. For instance, other platforms may include structuralcomponents and/or functional systems not pictured and/or more or less ofthe pictured structural components and/or functional systems. Moreover,a given platform may include multiple, individual platforms that areoperated in concert to perform the operations of the given platform.Other examples are also possible.

III. EXAMPLE ASSET

As discussed above with reference to FIG. 1 , asset data platform 102may be configured to perform functions to facilitate the monitoring,analysis, and/or management of various types of assets, examples ofwhich may include transport vehicles (e.g., locomotives, aircrafts,passenger vehicles, trucks, ships, etc.), equipment for construction,mining, farming, or the like (e.g., excavators, bulldozers, dump trucks,earth movers, etc.), manufacturing equipment (e.g., robotics devices,conveyor systems, and/or other assembly-line machines), electric powergeneration equipment (e.g., wind turbines, gas turbines, coal boilers),petroleum production equipment (e.g., gas compressors, distillationcolumns, pipelines), and data network nodes (e.g., personal computers,routers, bridges, gateways, switches, etc.), among other examples.

Broadly speaking, an asset may comprise a combination of one or moreelectrical, mechanical, electromechanical, and/or electronic componentsthat are designed to perform one or more tasks. Depending on the type ofasset, such components may take various forms. For instance, a transportvehicle may include an engine, a transmission, a drivetrain, a fuelsystem, a battery system, an exhaust system, a braking system, agenerator, a gear box, a rotor, and/or hydraulic systems, which worktogether to carry out the tasks of a transport vehicle. However, othertypes of assets may include other various other types of components.

In addition to the aforementioned components, an asset may also beequipped with a set of on-board components that enable the asset tocapture and report operating data. To illustrate, FIG. 4 is simplifiedblock diagram showing some on-board components for capturing andreporting operating data that may be included within or otherwiseaffixed to an example asset 400. As shown, these on-board components mayinclude sensors 402, a processor 404, data storage 406, a communicationinterface 408, and perhaps also a local analytics device 410, all ofwhich may be communicatively coupled by a communication link 412 thatmay take the form of a system bus, a network, or other connectionmechanism.

In general, sensors 402 may each be configured to measure the value of arespective operating parameter of asset 400 and then output data thatindicates the measured value of the respective operating parameter overtime. In this respect, the operating parameters of asset 400 that aremeasured by sensors 402 may vary depending on the type of asset, butsome representative examples may include speed, velocity, acceleration,location, weight, temperature, pressure, friction, vibration, powerusage, throttle position, fluid usage, fluid level, voltage, current,magnetic field, electric field, presence or absence of objects, currentposition of a component, and power generation, among many others.

In practice, sensors 402 may each be configured to measure the value ofa respective operating parameter continuously, periodically (e.g., basedon a sampling frequency), and/or in response to some triggering event.In this respect, each sensor 402 may have a respective set of operatingparameters that defines how the sensor performs its measurements, whichmay differ on a sensor-by-sensor basis (e.g., some sensors may samplebased on a first frequency, while other sensors sample based on asecond, different frequency). Similarly, sensors 402 may each beconfigured to output data that indicates the measured value of itsrespective operating parameter continuously, periodically (e.g., basedon a sampling frequency), and/or in response to some triggering event.

Based on the foregoing, it will be appreciated that sensors 402 may takevarious different forms depending on the type of asset, the type ofoperating parameter being measured, etc. For instance, in some cases, asensor 402 may take the form of a general-purpose sensing device thathas been programmed to measure a particular type of operating parameter.In other cases, a sensor 402 may take the form of a special-purposesensing device that has been specifically designed to measure aparticular type of operating parameter (e.g., a temperature sensor, aGPS receiver, etc.). In still other cases, a sensor 402 may take theform of a special-purpose device that is not primarily designed tooperate as a sensor but nevertheless has the capability to measure thevalue of an operating parameter as well (e.g., an actuator). Sensors 402may take other forms as well.

Processor 404 may comprise one or more processor components, such asgeneral-purpose processors, special-purpose processors, programmablelogic devices, controllers, and/or any other processor components nowknown or later developed. In turn, data storage 406 may comprise one ormore non-transitory computer-readable storage mediums, examples of whichmay include volatile storage mediums such as random-access memory,registers, cache, etc. and non-volatile storage mediums such asread-only memory, a hard-disk drive, a solid-state drive, flash memory,an optical-storage device, etc.

As shown in FIG. 4 , data storage 406 may be arranged to containexecutable program instructions (i.e., software) that cause asset 400 toperform various functions related to capturing and reporting operatingdata, along with associated data that enables asset 400 to perform theseoperations. For example, data storage 406 may contain executable programinstructions that cause asset 400 to obtain sensor data from sensors 402and then transmit that sensor data to another computing system (e.g.,asset data platform 102). As another example, data storage 406 maycontain executable program instructions that cause asset 400 to evaluatewhether the sensor data output by sensors 402 is indicative of anyabnormal conditions at asset 400 (e.g., by applying logic such asthreshold-based rules to the measured values output by sensors 402), andthen if so, to generate abnormal-condition data that indicatesoccurrences of abnormal conditions. The executable program instructionsand associated data stored in data storage 406 may take various otherforms as well.

Communication interface 408 may be configured to facilitate wirelessand/or wired communication between asset 400 and various computingsystems, including an asset data platform such as asset data platform102. As such, communication interface 408 may take any suitable form forcarrying out these functions, examples of which may include a chipsetand antenna adapted to facilitate wireless communication, an Ethernetinterface, a serial bus interface (e.g., Firewire, USB 2.0, etc.),and/or any other interface that provides for wireless and/or wiredcommunication. Communication interface 408 may also include multiplecommunication interfaces of different types. Other configurations arepossible as well. It should also be understood that asset 400 may not beequipped with its own on-board communication interface.

In some circumstances, it may also be desirable to perform certain dataanalytics operations locally at asset 400, rather than relying on acentral platform to perform data analytics operations. Indeed,performing data analytics operations locally at asset 400 may reduce theneed to transmit operating data to a centralized platform, which mayreduce the cost and/or delay associated with performing data analyticsoperations at the central platform and potentially also increase theaccuracy of certain data analytics operations, among other advantages.

In this respect, in some cases, the aforementioned on-board componentsof asset 400 (e.g., processor 404 and data storage 406) may providesufficient computing power to locally perform data analytics operationsat asset 400, in which case data storage 406 may be provisioned withexecutable program instructions and associated program data forperforming the data analytics operations. However, in other cases, theaforementioned on-board components of asset 400 (e.g., processor 404and/or data storage 406) may not provide sufficient computing power tolocally perform certain data analytics operations at asset 400. In suchcases, asset 400 may also optionally be equipped with local analyticsdevice 410, which may comprise a computing device that is capable ofperforming data analytics operations and other complex operations thatgo beyond the capabilities of the asset's other on-board components. Inthis way, local analytics device 410 may generally serve to expand theon-board capabilities of asset 400.

FIG. 5 illustrates a simplified block diagram showing some componentsthat may be included in an example local analytics device 500. As shown,local analytics device 500 may include an asset interface 502, aprocessor 504, data storage 506, and a communication interface 508, allof which may be communicatively coupled by a communication link 510 thatmay take the form of a system bus, a network, or other connectionmechanism.

Asset interface 502 may be configured to couple local analytics device500 to the other on-board components of asset 400. For instance, assetinterface 502 may couple local analytics device 500 to processor 404,which may enable local analytics device 500 to receive data fromprocessor 404 (e.g., sensor data output by sensors 402) and to provideinstructions to processor 404 (e.g., to control the operation of asset400). In this way, local analytics device 500 may indirectly interfacewith and receive data from other on-board components of asset 400 viaprocessor 404. Additionally or alternatively, asset interface 502 maydirectly couple local analytics device 500 to one or more sensors 402 ofasset 400. Local analytics device 500 may interface with the otheron-board components of asset 400 in other manners as well.

Processor 504 may comprise one or more processor components that enablelocal analytics device 500 to execute data analytics programs and/orother complex operations, which may take the form of general-purposeprocessors, special-purpose processors, programmable logic devices,controllers, and/or any other processor components now known or laterdeveloped. In turn, data storage 506 may comprise one or morenon-transitory computer-readable storage mediums that enable localanalytics device 500 to execute data analytics programs and/or othercomplex operations, examples of which may include volatile storagemediums such as random-access memory, registers, cache, etc. andnon-volatile storage mediums such as read-only memory, a hard-diskdrive, a solid-state drive, flash memory, an optical-storage device,etc.

As shown in FIG. 5 , data storage 506 may be arranged to containexecutable program instructions (i.e., software) that cause localanalytics device 500 to perform data analytics operations and/or othercomplex operations that go beyond the capabilities of the asset's otheron-board components, as well as associated data that enables localanalytics device 500 to perform these operations.

Communication interface 508 may be configured to facilitate wirelessand/or wired communication between local analytics device 500 andvarious computing systems, including an asset data platform such asasset data platform 102. In this respect, local analytics device 500 maycommunicate the results of its operations to an asset data platform viacommunication interface 508, rather than via an on-board communicationinterface of asset 400. Further, in circumstances where asset 400 is notbe equipped with its own on-board communication interface, asset 400 mayuse communication interface 508 to transmit operating data to an assetdata platform. As such, communication interface 508 may take anysuitable form for carrying out these functions, examples of which mayinclude a chipset and antenna adapted to facilitate wirelesscommunication, an Ethernet interface, a serial bus interface (e.g.,Firewire, USB 2.0, etc.), and/or any other interface that provides forwireless and/or wired communication. Communication interface 508 mayalso include multiple communication interfaces of different types. Otherconfigurations are possible as well.

In addition to the foregoing, local analytics device 500 may alsoinclude other components that can be used to expand the on-boardcapabilities of an asset. For example, local analytics device 500 mayoptionally include one or more sensors that are configured to measurecertain parameters, which may be used to supplement the sensor datacaptured by the asset's on-board sensors. Local analytics device 500 mayinclude other types of components as well.

Returning to FIG. 4 , although not shown, asset 400 may also be equippedwith hardware and/or software components that enable asset 400 to adjustits operation based on asset-related data and/or instructions that arereceived at asset 400 (e.g., from asset data platform 102 and/or localanalytics device 410). For instance, as one possibility, asset 400 maybe equipped with one or more of an actuator, motor, value, solenoid, orthe like, which may be configured to alter the physical operation ofasset 400 in some manner based on commands received from processor 404.In this respect, data storage 406 may additionally be provisioned withexecutable program instructions that cause processor 404 to generatesuch commands based on asset-related data and/or instructions receivedvia communication interface 408. Asset 400 may be capable of adjustingits operation in other manners as well.

Further, although not shown, asset 400 may additionally include one ormore interfaces that provide connectivity with external user-interfaceequipment (sometimes referred to as “peripherals”), such as a keyboard,a mouse or trackpad, a display screen, a touch-sensitive interface, astylus, a virtual-reality headset, speakers, etc., which may allow fordirect user interaction with the on-board components of asset 400.

One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that FIGS. 4-5 merelyshow one example of the components of an asset, and that numerous otherexamples are also possible. For instance, the components of an asset mayinclude additional components not pictured, may have more or fewer ofthe pictured components, and/or the aforementioned components may bearranged and/or integrated in a different manner. Further, one ofordinary skill in the art will appreciate that two or more of thecomponents of asset 400 may be integrated together in whole or in part.Further yet, one of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that atleast some of these components of asset 400 may be affixed or otherwiseadded to asset 400 after it has been placed into operation.

IV. EXAMPLE OPERATIONS

As described above, disclosed herein is new technology for creating anevent prediction model, which uses a data-driven approach tointelligently the select model's set of input data variables. Asdescribed above, an event prediction model generally refers to apredictive model that is configured to output a prediction of whether anevent occurrence of a given type is forthcoming (e.g., whether an eventis likely to occur within some period of time in the foreseeablefuture). Such an event prediction model may take various forms.

For instance, the given type of event occurrence that is predicted by anevent prediction model may take any of various forms. As one example,the given type of event occurrence may be an occurrence of a failure onan asset, such as a failure of a particular type of asset component or afailure of a particular asset system or subsystem. As another example,the given type of event occurrence may be an occurrence of a particulartype of change in an asset's operation, such as an asset shutdown. Asyet another example, the given type of event occurrence may be anoccurrence of a particular type of an external event that may impact anasset's operation, such as a particular weather event or a particularchange in an environment where an asset is operating (referred to hereinas an “operating environment”). The given type of event occurrence thatis predicted by an event prediction model may take various other formsas well—including the possibility that the given type of eventoccurrence is related to something other than the operation of an asset.

Further, the input data for an event prediction model may generallyinclude any type of data that may be suggestive of whether or not anevent occurrence of the given type is forthcoming. In this respect,depending on the given type of event occurrence that is predicted by anevent occurrence model, the input data may take any of various forms.For instance, when the given type of event occurrence being predicted byan event prediction model is an event related to the operation of agiven asset under evaluation (e.g., an asset failure), the input datamay include operating data for the given asset and/or other relatedassets (e.g., sensor data, abnormal-conditions data, and/or data derivedtherefrom), asset maintenance data for the given asset and/or otherrelated assets, and/or environmental data for the given asset and/orother related assets, among other possibilities. The input data for anevent prediction model may take various other forms as well—includingthe possibility that the input data is related to something other thanthe operation of an as set.

Further yet, an event prediction model's output may take any of variousforms. In one implementation, an event prediction model may beconfigured such that each time it evaluates input data to render aprediction of whether an event occurrence of the given type isforthcoming, the event prediction model may output a metric reflecting alikelihood that an event occurrence is forthcoming, which may then becompared to an “event-occurrence threshold” to make a binarydetermination of whether the event occurrence is forthcoming. In such animplementation, the metric reflecting a likelihood that an eventoccurrence is forthcoming may take various forms. As one possibleexample, the metric reflecting a likelihood that an event occurrence isforthcoming may take the form of a probability metric reflecting apredicted probability of an event occurrence happening within someperiod of time in the future (e.g., within the next 2 weeks) that may berepresented on a scale of either 0 to 100 or 0.0 to 1.0, and theevent-occurrence threshold may then be represented on the same scale.However, the metric reflecting a likelihood that an event occurrence isforthcoming may take various other forms as well.

In another implementation, an event prediction model may be configuredsuch that each time it evaluates input data to render a prediction ofwhether an event occurrence of the given type is forthcoming, the eventprediction model outputs a binary indication of whether or not itpredicts an event occurrence to be forthcoming, such as an indicatorthat has a first value if the model predicts that an event occurrence isnot likely to happen within some period of time in the future (e.g., avalue of “0” or “No”) and a second value if the model predicts that anevent occurrence is likely to happen within some period of time in thefuture (e.g., a value of “1” or “Yes”).

In yet another implementation, an event prediction model may beconfigured such that it only outputs an indicator when it predicts anevent occurrence to be forthcoming, and otherwise does not output anydata (i.e., it may output a null). In such an implementation, theindicator that is output by the event prediction model when it predictsan event occurrence to be forthcoming may take any of various forms,including but not limited to a simple indicator reflecting that apositive prediction has been rendered by the event prediction model(e.g., a “1” or “Yes”) or a more detailed indicator identifying thegiven type of event occurrence that is predicted by the event predictionmodel (e.g., an event code).

In still another implementation, an event prediction model may beconfigured such that it outputs a categorization of a predicted eventoccurrence. For instance, an event prediction model may be configured tooutput a severity level of a predicted event occurrence that indicateshow severely an asset's operation is expected to be impacted by thepredicted event occurrence, which could take the form of a “high” (or“critical”) severity level used to indicate an event occurrence that isexpected to have a significant impact on an asset's operation (e.g., afailure occurrence that is expected to render an asset inoperable), a“medium” severity level used to indicate an event occurrence that isexpected to have a moderate impact on an asset's operation (e.g., afailure occurrence that is expected to limit an asset's operation butnot render it inoperable), or a “low” severity level used to indicate anevent occurrence that are expected to have minimal impact on an asset'soperation, among other possibilities. It is also possible that an eventprediction model may be configured to output other types ofcategorizations, such as a categorization based on safety, compliance,or the like. Further, to the extent that event prediction model isconfigured to output a categorization of a predicted event occurrence,that categorization may take various forms, examples of which include atextual indicator (e.g., “High,” “Medium,” “Low,” etc.) or a numericalindicator that represents the categorization level, among otherpossibilities.

In a further implementation, an event prediction model may be configuredsuch that it outputs a “recommended operating mode” for an asset, whichis a recommendation of the particular manner in which the asset shouldbe used that is determined based on both (1) whether an event occurrenceof the given type is predicted for the asset in the foreseeable futureand (2) a categorization of the predicted event occurrence that (e.g., afailure severity level or other type of categorization based on safety,compliance, or the like). In this respect, a recommend operating modeoutput by an event prediction model may take various forms, examples ofwhich may include an “Inoperable” (or “Do Not Operate”) mode, a “LimitedUse” mode (e.g., a “Trail Only” or “Non-Lead” mode for a locomotive), ora “Full Operation” mode. However, a recommended operating mode may takevarious other forms as well, including the possibility that therecommended operating modes may be customized for particular assettypes, particular industries, and/or particular end users, as examples.It should also be understood that a recommended operating mode couldpotentially include a more detailed recommendation of how to operate anasset than the examples set forth above (e.g., a recommended operatingmode may comprise a set of multiple recommendations as to how to operatemultiple different subsystems or components of the asset). Likewise, itshould be understood that a recommended operating mode may takedifferent forms depending on the particular approach used forcategorizing the failure types (e.g., a severity-based categorizationvs. a safety-based or compliance-based categorization).

An event prediction model's output may take other forms as well.

Still further, an event prediction model may be defined in any ofvarious manners. In one implementation, the process of defining an eventprediction model may generally involve (a) obtaining a set of trainingdata for the event prediction model, which may comprise historicalvalues for a set of input data variables that are potentially suggestiveof whether or not an event occurrence the given type is forthcoming, (b)analyzing the set of training data using a supervised and/orunsupervised machine learning technique in order to derive arelationship between (i) the values of at least a subset of the set ofdata variables and (ii) a likelihood that an event occurrence of thegiven type is forthcoming, and (c) embodying the derived relationshipinto a predictive model. In this respect, the supervised and/orunsupervised machine learning technique used to define the eventprediction model may take any of various forms, examples of which mayinclude regression, random forest, SVM, artificial neural networks,Naïve Bayes, decision trees, dimensionality reduction, kNN, gradientboosting, clustering, and association, among other possibilities. Theprocess of defining an event prediction model may take other forms aswell.

An event prediction model may take various other forms as well. Forinstance, in one implementation, an event prediction model may take theform of a “combined” event prediction model that comprises a collectionof multiple individual event prediction models and is configured tooutput a prediction of whether any one or more different types of eventoccurrences are forthcoming. One specific example of such a combinedevent prediction model may comprise a collection of individual failuremodels that are each configured to output an indication of whether arespective failure type of a group of failure types is predicted tooccur at an asset in the foreseeable future, and the output of such amodel may take the form of a metric reflecting a likelihood of at leastone failure type in the group of failure types occurring at the asset inthe foreseeable future (or the complement thereof), a binary indicatorof whether or not at least one failure type in the group of failuretypes is predicted to occur at the asset in the foreseeable future, acategorization associated with at least one failure type in the group offailure types that is predicted to occur at the asset in the foreseeablefuture (e.g., the severity level of the most-severe failure typepredicted to occur), and/or a recommended operating mode of the asset.Such an example of a combined event prediction model is described infurther detail in U.S. application Ser. Nos. 14/732,258 and 16/125,335,which are incorporated by reference herein in their entirety. Many othertypes of event prediction models exist as well.

Regardless of its exact form, a primary purpose of an event predictionmodel is to enable a data analytics platform to preemptively notify auser that an event occurrence of a given type is forthcomingsufficiently in advance of when the event occurrence actually happens,so that action can be taken to address the event occurrence before itactually happens. For instance, in the context of an event predictionmodel that is configured to predict whether an occurrence of an assetfailure is forthcoming, the primary purpose is to enable a dataanalytics platform (such as asset data platform 102) to preemptivelynotify a user that the occurrence of the asset failure is forthcomingsufficiently in advance of when the asset failure actually occurs, sothat the asset can be taken out of circulation and/or maintenance can beperformed before the failure actually occurs. In this way, an eventprediction model may help to mitigate the costs that may otherwiseresult from an unexpected occurrence of an undesirable event like anasset failure—such as an increase in maintenance cost and/or a decreasein productivity—and may thus provide a positive net value to a user.

To achieve this purpose, an event prediction model for a given type ofevent may be designed to output its prediction of a forthcoming eventoccurrence during a particular window of time preceding the eventoccurrence referred as an “event window,” which is a window of timeduring which a preemptive prediction of an event occurrence of the giventype is considered to provide sufficient net value. In this respect, thebeginning of an event window for an event occurrence of the given typemay be set to the earliest time (relative to the actual time of theforthcoming event occurrence) at which a preemptive notification of theevent occurrence is still expected to provide sufficient net value,while the end of the event window for an event occurrence of the giventype may be set to the latest time (relative to the actual time of theforthcoming event occurrence) at which a preemptive notification of theevent occurrence is still expected to provide sufficient net value.

Such an event window may take various forms, which may depend on factorssuch as the type of event occurrence being predicted, the costassociated with addressing an event occurrence of the given type, howthe model's prediction accuracy is expected to change as predictions arerendered earlier in time, and the lead time needed to address an eventoccurrence of the given type, among other possibilities. As onerepresentative example, an event window for an event occurrence of agiven type may be set to (a) begin approximately 1-2 weeks before theactual time of the event occurrence and (b) end approximately 1-2 daysbefore the actual time of the event occurrence. However, it should beunderstood that this representative example is merely provided forpurposes of illustration, and that an event window for an eventoccurrence of the given type may begin and end at various other timesrelative to the event occurrence as well. Further, in some embodiments,it is possible that the beginning and end points of the event window mayvary for different event occurrences of the same given type (e.g., basedon external factors such as when the last event occurrence of the giventype happened).

Based on the foregoing, it will be appreciated that the ability of anevent prediction model to output accurate, timely predictions offorthcoming event occurrences of a given type depends in large part onthe particular set of input data variables that the event predictionmodel uses to render those predictions. Indeed, in order for a givenevent prediction model to output an accurate, timely prediction ofwhether an event occurrence is forthcoming, the model's set of inputdata variables generally should be of a nature that the data valuesthereof, either alone or in some combination with one another, exhibitsome indication that an event occurrence event of the given type isforthcoming that can be deduced by the event prediction model (e.g., bychanging in a particular way) sufficiently in advance of the forthcomingevent occurrence.

As such, one important aspect of creating an event prediction model fora given type of event is selecting the particular set of input datavariables that the event prediction model uses to render itspredictions. In this respect, the primary goal is to select datavariables having values that provide an indication of an eventoccurrence of the given type sufficiently in advance of that eventoccurrence, such that the event prediction model can detect theindication and then begin outputting its prediction that the eventoccurrence is forthcoming. For example, data variables having valuesthat meaningfully change in the window of time leading up to an eventoccurrence of the given type may be good candidates to include in theset of input data variables used by the event prediction model to renderits predictions. On the other hand, data variables having values that donot appear to meaningfully change in the window of time leading up to anevent occurrence of the given type may not be good candidates to includein the set of input data variables used by the event prediction model torender its predictions.

However, existing technology for creating an event prediction modeltends to select the model's set of input data variables based heavily(if not exclusively) on input from a subject matter expert (SME) or thelike, which has several limitations. For example, while an SME typicallyhas knowledge regarding some possible causes of an event occurrence of agiven type (e.g., an occurrence of a given failure mode), the SME isoften incapable of identifying the entire universe of causes for anevent occurrence of the given type, and also may be unable to identifythe actual root cause of an event occurrence of the given type at agranular level. As another example, while an SME may be able to identifythat a particular behavior of a data variable is correlated to an eventoccurrence of a given type, the SME may be unable to identify thespecific point in time at which the data variable's values are mostlikely to be indicative of an event occurrence of the given type. As yetanother example, an SME is typically only focused a limited set of datavariables that may be associated with event occurrences of the giventype, rather than the much larger universe of data variables that areavailable to an asset data platform (including but not limited to datavariables that are derived by the asset data platform based on rawdata). As yet another example, an SME may have knowledge of how theasset works theoretically, but oftentimes the environment in which anasset operates changes its behavior, creating new failure modes that maybe outside of the scope of an SME's knowledge. In this respect, the newbehaviors may be such that an SME's knowledge may never be able tosufficiently account for that behavior. As a result of theselimitations, the set of input data variables selected for an eventprediction model often does not include the data variables that providethe best indication of a forthcoming event occurrence of the given type,which degrades the event prediction model's ability to provide accurate,timely predictions. Thus, there is a need for technology that helpscreate a more accurate event prediction model.

To address these and other problems with existing technology, disclosedherein is a new process for creating an event prediction model thatemploys a data-driven approach for selecting the model's set of inputdata variables. To help describe this new process, FIG. 6 depicts afunctional block diagram 600 that illustrates one example embodiment ofthe disclosed process. For the purposes of illustration, the exampleoperations embodied by the blocks in block diagram 600 and describedfurther herein below are described as being carried out by asset dataplatform 102, but it should be understood that data analytics platformsother than asset data platform 102 may perform the example operations.Likewise, it should be understood that the disclosed process is merelydescribed in this manner for the sake of clarity and explanation andthat the example embodiment may be implemented in various other manners,including the possibility that functions may be added, removed,rearranged into different orders, combined into fewer blocks, and/orseparated into additional blocks depending upon the particularembodiment.

As shown in FIG. 6 , the disclosed process may begin at block 602 withasset data platform 102 receiving an initial set of parameters for theevent prediction model to be created by asset data platform 102. Thisinitial set of parameters may include an identification of the type ofevent to be predicted by the event prediction model (e.g., a givenfailure mode for a particular class of assets) and perhaps also anindication of the event window to be used by the event prediction modelfor the given type of event to be predicted, among other possibilities.Further, asset data platform 102 may receive this initial set ofparameters in various manners. As one example, asset data platform 102may receive the initial set of parameters from a user of the platform,who may input the initial set of parameters via a client station coupledto asset data platform 102, such as client station 104E, or a userinterface of asset data platform 102, among other possibilities.

At block 604, asset data platform 102 may select an initial set of datavariables to use for the event prediction model. Generally, the initialset of data variables may comprise any data variable from among theuniverse of data variables available to asset data platform 102, such asthose received at asset data platform 102 from data sources 104, amongother possibilities. For instance, the data variables included withinthe initial set of data variables may include (i) one or more operatingdata variables received from asset 104A, such as one or more sensor datavariables collected by a sensor of an asset, or one or moreabnormal-conditions data variables, among other possible data variablescollected by an asset; (ii) one or more operating data variablesreceived from operating data source 104B; (iii) one or more maintenancedata variables received from asset maintenance data source 104C; (iv)one or more environmental data variables received from environmentaldata source 104D; (v) one or more user input data variables receivedfrom client station 104E; and/or (vi) one or more derived data variablesthat are derived based on the forgoing data variables, such as roll-updata variables and/or features data variables.

Asset data platform 102 may select the initial set of data variables invarious manners. As one possibility, asset data platform 102 may selectthe initial set of data variables based on input from a user of theplatform, who may input a selection of the initial set of data variablesvia a client station coupled to the asset data platform, such as clientstation 104E, or a user interface of the asset data platform, amongother possibilities. For instance, asset data platform 102 may cause aclient station to present a user with a list of data variables availableto the asset data platform that may possibly serve as input datavariables for the event prediction model being created (e.g., datavariables that have some possible association with the given type ofevent being predicted). From this list, the user may then select theinitial set of data variables, which may cause the client station totransmit this selection to the asset data platform. As will beappreciated, however, in a typical scenario, such a list may comprisethousands, if not tens of thousands, of possible data types, which maybe too unwieldy for a user to choose from. Accordingly, in anotherexample, asset data platform 102 may select some subset of datavariables from among the universe of possible data variables availableto the asset data platform and present this subset of data variables tothe user via a client station coupled to asset data platform 102 or auser interface of the asset data platform. In this way, a user may thenselect an initial set of data variables from among this subset of datavariables, which may cause the client station to transmit this selectionto the asset data platform. In one example of this user selection, auser, such as an SME, may select the initial set of data variables basedon a hypothesis of which data variables are predictive of the given typeof event occurrence.

As another possibility, asset data platform 102 may select the initialset of data variables based on something other than user input. Forexample, the data analytics platform may refer to an existing eventprediction model that shares similarities with the event predictionmodel being created (e.g., an existing event prediction model for acomparable type of event that occurs in another industry) and thenselect the initial set of data variables to be the same as or similar tothe input data variables used by that existing event prediction model.As another example, asset data platform 102 may maintain or have accessto a data table that correlates event types with data variables known tobe associated with those event types, in which case asset data platform102 may select the initial set of data variables based on such a datatable. The data analytics platform may select the initial set of datavariables in other manners as well, including the possibility that thedata analytics platform may select the initial set of data variablesusing a combination of the techniques described above.

Returning to FIG. 6 , at block 606, asset data platform 102 may nextoptionally classify each respective data variable in the initial set ofdata variables. Classifying the data variables in the initial set ofdata variables may help drive some of the later steps in the process. Inparticular, as will be described further herein, some steps of thedisclosed process may involve using the classification of a given datavariable as a basis to take one or more actions with respect to thegiven data variable.

In one implementation, asset data platform 102 may classify eachrespective data variable in the initial set of data variables based onsome predetermined data indicative of a respective classification forthe respective data variable. This predetermined data may take the formof, for instance, two or more possible classifications, in which caseasset data platform 102 may determine, for each respective data variablein the set of initial data variables, which of these two or morepossible classifications to use for the respective data variable. Inanother embodiment, this predetermined data may take the form of ahierarchy of possible classifications with multiple levels ofclassification granularity. In such an embodiment, asset data platform102 may determine, for each respective data variable in the set ofinitial data variables, which classification or classifications from thehierarchy to use for the respective data variable.

In one specific example, the data analytics platform may classify thedata variables according to whether a respective data variable is a“continuous” data variable or a “categorical” data variable. Acontinuous data variable is a data variable that can have a data valuethat exists in a continuous range of values. Engine temperature is oneexample of a data variable that may be classified as continuous becausethe value of the engine temperature variable can exist as any value in arange of between a low bound of, say, 0° C. and a high bound of, say,600° C. Battery voltage is another example of a data variable that maybe classified as continuous because the value of the battery voltagevariable can exist as any value in a range of values between a low boundof, say, 0V and a high bound of, say, 18V. On the other hand, acategorical data variable is a data variable that typically takes on oneof a few possible discrete values or states. A data variable indicatingthe presence or absence of a specific fault condition at an asset is oneexample of a categorical data variable because the data variable takeson either one of two discrete states: an “affirmative” or “1”indicating, for instance, the presence of a fault condition, or a“negative” or “0” indicating, for instance, the absence of a faultcondition.

In an example in which asset data platform 102 may further classify eachdata variable on a more granular level, asset data platform 102 mayrefer to a known hierarchy of data variable classifications to determineone or more possible sub-classifications for each respective datavariable. For instance, asset data platform 102 may refer to a knownhierarchy of data variable classifications in order to further classifythe continuous data variables into one or more possiblesub-classifications and to further classify the categorical datavariables into one or more sub-classifications.

To illustrate this, FIG. 7 depicts one example of a data variablehierarchy 700 from which asset data platform 102 could use to classifyeach data variable in the initial set of data variables. As depicted,the data variable hierarchy 700 includes a hierarchy of several possibleclassifications. For instance, data variable hierarchy 700 includes twotop-level classifications, “categorical” classification 710 and“continuous” classification 720. Data variable hierarchy 700 furtherincludes two sub-classifications under the categorical classification710, including an “event” sub-classification 711 and a “state”sub-classification 712. The continuous classification 720 includes threesub-classifications, including a “physical” sub-classification 721, a“radial” sub-classification 722, and a “statistical” sub-classification723. The physical sub-classification 721 includes additionalsub-classifications, including an “electrical” sub-classification 721 a,a “pressure” sub-classification 721 b, and a “temperature”sub-classification 721 c, whereas the statistical sub-classificationincludes additional sub-classifications as well, including a “constant”sub-classification 723 a, a “cyclic” sub-classification 723 b, and a“monotonic” sub-classification 723 c. Finally, the electricalsub-classification includes still additional sub-classifications,including a “current” sub-classification 721 aa and a “voltage”sub-classification 721 ab.

Thus, in one implementation of classifying the data variables, whenasset data platform 102 classifies the data variables in the initial setof data variables, asset data platform 102 may refer to a data variablehierarchy, such as data variable hierarchy 700, and for each respectivedata variable in the initial set of data variables, asset data platform102 may classify the respective data variable as one of theclassifications or sub-classifications specified in the data variablehierarchy, such as one of classifications 710 or 720, and/or one ofsub-classifications 711, 712, 721, 722, 723, 721 a, 721 b, 721 c, 723 a,723 b, 723 c, 721 aa, and/or 721 ab. As representative examples, theengine temperature data variable may be classified as the temperaturesub-classification 721 c, the battery voltage data variable may beclassified as the voltage sub-classification 721 ab, and the datavariable indicating the presence of absence of a specific faultcondition may be classified as the state sub-classification 712. Ofcourse, other examples are possible as well.

Given that the classifications are arranged in a hierarchical fashion,it should be understood that if a given data variable is classified as aparticular sub-classification, asset data platform 102 may consider thegiven data variable to also be classified as the classification(s) orsub-classification(s) that exist above the particular sub-classificationin the hierarchy. Returning to the example previously mentioned, as theengine temperature data variable is classified as the temperaturesub-classification 721 c, asset data platform 102 may also consider theengine temperature data variable to be classified under the physicalsub-classification 721 and the continuous classification 720. Similarly,as the battery voltage data variable is classified as the voltagesub-classification 721 ab, asset data platform may also consider thebattery voltage data variable to be classified as the electricalsub-classification 721 a, the physical sub-classification 721, and thecontinuous classification 720. And similarly still, as the data variableindicating the presence of absence of a specific fault condition isclassified as the state sub-classification 712, asset data platform mayalso consider the data variable indicating the presence of absence ofthe specific fault condition to be classified as the categoricalclassification 710 as well.

It should be appreciated that the data variable hierarchy 700 is justone example of a possible hierarchy of possible classifications, and inother examples, other classifications are possible, as are otherarrangements of the classifications to form other example hierarchies.For example, in some embodiments, the data variable hierarchy may bedifferent for event prediction models that predict the occurrences ofdifferent events, or event prediction models that predict occurrences ofevents for different classes of assets.

Asset data platform 102 may determine how to classify each respectivedata variable in the initial set of data variables in various ways. Inone example implementation, asset data platform 102 may refer to aclassification lookup table and cross-reference each respective datavariable to an entry in the look table to determine the specificclassification of the respective data variable. In another exampleimplementation, asset data platform 102 may refer to metadata associatedwith the given data variable to determine whether the metadata providesan indication of which classification to use for the given datavariable. In still another example, asset data platform may prompt auser to provide an input indicating the classification of the given datavariable. Other ways of classifying the data variables in the initialset of data variables are possible as well.

Returning to FIG. 6 , at block 608, asset data platform 102 may nextevaluate the extent to which each data variable in the initial set ofdata variables tends to be predictive of an event occurrence of thegiven type, and based on this evaluation, assign to each such datavariable a respective metric (referred to herein as a “differencemetric”) that reflects this predictive tendency. These functions ofevaluating and assigning respective difference metrics to the initialset of data variables (which may be referred to collectively as“scoring” the initial set of data variables) may take various forms.

As one possibility, asset data platform 102 may begin by obtaininghistorical data values for the initial set of data variables, which mayinclude both (i) historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and (ii) historicaldata values from times that are inside an event window for an actualevent occurrence. Then, for each respective data variable in the initialset of data variables, asset data platform 102 may (a) compare thehistorical data values of the respective data variable that fall outsidethe model's event window to the historical data values of the respectivedata variable that fall inside the model's event window, and (b) basedon this comparison, may derive a respective difference metric thatrepresents the extent to which the historical data values of therespective data variable changed from outside the event window to insidethe event window. In this respect, it should be appreciated that a datavariable having a relatively high difference metric indicates that thevalues of the data variable tended to meaningfully change in the windowof time leading up to an event occurrence of the given type, whichsuggests that the data variable may be more predictive of eventoccurrences of the given type. On the other hand, it should beappreciated that a data variable having a relatively low differencemetric indicates that the values of the data variable tended not tomeaningfully change in the window of the time leading up to an eventoccurrence of the given type, which suggests that the data variable maynot be particularly predictive of event occurrences of the given type.

In one specific implementation of asset data platform 102 deriving adifference metric, but still by way of example, asset data platform 102may derive a difference metric for a given data variable by determiningthe Kullback-Liebler divergence between the subset of historical datavalues for the given data variable falling outside the event window tothe subset of historical data values falling inside the event widow. Inthis way, asset data platform 102 may consider the Kullback-Lieblerdivergence as the difference metric for the given data variable. Inother implementations, asset data platform may derive a differencemetric for a given data variable by using other statistical analyses aswell.

In some embodiments of the present method, when evaluating the extent towhich each data variable in the initial set of data variables tends tobe predictive of an event occurrence of the given type and assigning toeach such data variable a respective difference metric that reflectsthis predictive tendency, asset data platform 102 may take into accountthe classification of the data variables, as may be determined above atblock 606. In this respect, asset data platform 102 may use a differenttechnique to derive the difference metric for data variables classifiedas one type of classification and use another, perhaps different,technique to derive the difference metric for data variables classifiedas another type of classification. In one example of this, and inaccordance with the example data variable hierarchy 700 depicted in FIG.7 , for each respective data variable in the initial set of datavariables that is classified as continuous, asset data platform 102 mayderive a difference metric for those respective data variables bydetermining the Kullback-Liebler divergence between the sets of datavalues falling outside the event window to the set of data valuesfalling inside the event widow. And for each respective data variable inthe initial set of data variables that is classified as categorical,asset data platform 102 may derive a difference metric for thoserespective data variables by utilizing a different technique, examplesof which may include a chi-squared test, an apriori algorithm, and/or aneural net autoencoder technique, among other possibilities.

Continuing at block 610, asset data platform 102 may next filter theinitial set of data variables based on their respective differencemetrics to thereby arrive at a filtered, initial set of data variables.This filtering may take various forms.

In accordance with one implementation of this filtering, asset dataplatform 102 may filter the initial set of data variables by comparingtheir respective difference metrics to a threshold difference metric(e.g., 0.5) and then selecting the data variables in the initial sethaving difference metrics that are greater than or equal to thisthreshold difference metric. In this respect, asset data platform 102may define the filtered, initial set of data variables to include anydata variable that has a difference metric greater than or equal to thethreshold difference metric.

In accordance with another implementation of this filtering, asset dataplatform 102 may filter the initial set of data variables by sorting theinitial set of data variables based on their respective differencemetrics and then selecting a given number of these data variables thathave the highest difference metrics. Examples of selecting a givennumber of these data variables that have the highest difference metricsinclude (i) selecting a particular number of the data variables thathave the highest difference metrics (e.g., selecting the top five datavariables), (ii) selecting a particular percentage of data variablesthat have the highest difference metrics (e.g., selecting the top 10% ofthe total number of data variables), or (iii) selecting a particularnumber of the data variables that have the highest difference metrics,where the particular number is computed as a function of the totalnumber of data variables (e.g., computing the logarithm of the totalnumber of data variables, and then selecting that number of datavariables). In this respect, asset data platform 102 may define thefiltered, initial set of data variables to include any data variablethat is among the top given number, top percentage, or determined as aresult of computing the function of data variables by difference metric.Other ways of filtering the data variables in the initial set of datavariables are possible as well.

At block 612, asset data platform 102 next applies a respective set ofone or more transformations to each respective data variable in thefiltered, initial set of data variables (or at least each of a subset ofthe filtered, initial set of data variables) to thereby arrive at atransformed set of data variables. In general, a transformation is anyqualitative or quantitative manipulation to at least one data variable'svalues such that, once transformed, the transformed data variablerepresents the at least one data variable's values in a different way.The transformations applied in accordance with the present disclosuremay take any of various forms.

As one possibility, a transformation of a given data variable maycomprise a function of the values of the given data variable alone,which may be referred to herein as a single-variable transformation.Some representative examples of single-variable transformations of agiven data variable include the average of the given data variable overa time period, the rate of change of the given data variable over a timeperiod, the logarithm of the given data variable, and the variance ofthe given data variable, among others.

As another possibility, a transformation of a given data variable maycomprise a function of the values of (i) the given data variable and(ii) one or more other data variables, which may be referred to hereinas a multi-variable transformation. Some representative examplesmulti-variable transformations of a given data variable include theratio of the rate of change of the given data variable to the rate ofchange of another data variable and an average of the variance of thegiven data variables and one or more other data variables, among others.In this respect, a multi-variable transformation may be viewed as atransformation that is applied to each of the data variables that areinvolved in the transformation.

There are many possible transformations that may be applied by assetdata platform 102 to each respective data variable in the filtered,initial set of data variables, and it should be appreciated that theforegoing examples were provided for the sake of brevity, and that inpractice, tens or even hundreds of different transformations of a givendata variable may be possible.

To illustrate with a real-world example, if one data variable in thefiltered, initial set of data variables is engine temperature andanother data variable in the filtered, initial set of data variables isbattery voltage, a possible single-variable transformation of the enginetemperature data variable may be average engine temperature on aweek-by-week basis, whereas another possible single-variabletransformation of the engine temperature may be maximum enginetemperature on a daily basis. And one possible multi-variabletransformation of the engine temperature data variable and/or thebattery voltage data variable may be the ratio of average enginetemperature on an hour-by-hour basis to average battery voltage on anhour-by-hour basis. Again, many other transformations are possible aswell.

Further, in practice, asset data platform 102 may select the respectiveset of one or more transformations to apply to each respective datavariable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based on variousfactors.

As a first possibility, asset data platform 102 may select a respectiveset of one or more transformations to apply to a respective datavariable based on the classification of the respective data variable.For instance, each possible classification may have a corresponding setof transformations associated therewith. Thus, when selecting therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable, asset data platform 102 may (i) identify theclassification of the given data variable, (ii) identify the set of oneor more transformations associated with the identified classification,and (iii) include the identified set of one or more transformations inthe respective set of one or more transformations to apply to therespective data variable.

In some implementations, the respective set of transformationsassociated with a given classification may include transformations thatare appropriate to apply to data variables of the given classificationand may omit transformations that are not appropriate to apply to datavariables of the given classification, such as transformations thatwould not yield useful data. For instance, referring back to the exampledata variable hierarchy 700 of FIG. 7 , for the radial classification722, one example data variable that may be classified as the radialclassification may be the radial angle of a rotor used during thegeneration of electric power. Accordingly, it may not yield useful datato apply an average angle transformation to this data variable. As such,an average angle transformation may be omitted from a respective set oftransformations associated with the radial classification 722. Inanother example, data variables classified as the monotonicclassification 723 c may be data variables that have constantlyincreasing data values. As such, a transformation that involves takingthe average of a monotonic data variable may not yield useful data;however, a transformation that involves taking the difference from onedata value to the next may yield useful data. As such, transformationsinvolving averages may be omitted from a respective set oftransformations associated with the monotonic classification 723 c,whereas transformations involving taking the difference from one datavalue to the next may be included in such a respective set oftransformations. Other examples of transformations that may be includedor omitted from respective sets of transformations associated withclassifications are possible as well.

As a second possibility, asset data platform 102 may select a respectiveset of one or more transformations to apply to a respective datavariable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based on dataindicating the expected behavior of the respective data variable for thegiven type of event to be predicted by the event prediction model beingcreated. For instance, the data analytics platform may maintain or haveaccess to data indicating that certain data variables are expected tobehave a certain way in the window of time preceding an event occurrenceof the given type, examples of which may include data indicating thatengine temperature is expected to rise dramatically prior to an enginefailure and/or that engine oil viscosity is expected to dropdramatically prior to an engine failure. Thus, the data analyticsplatform may take this expected behavior into account when selecting therespective sets of one or more transformations for these data variables,such that the one or more transformations selected for each datavariable is more tailored to the expected behavior of that variable.

As a third possibility, asset data platform 102 may select therespective set of one or more transformations to apply to a respectivedata variable in the filtered, initial set of data variables based on anevaluation of an existing event prediction model that sharessimilarities with the event prediction model being created (e.g., anexisting event prediction model for a similar type of event that occursin another industry). For instance, if there is existing eventprediction model that shares similarities with the event predictionmodel being created, asset data platform 102 may evaluate the input datavariables for that existing event prediction model to identify any datavariable that appears to be a transformed version of a data variableincluded in the filtered, initial set of data variables. If so, assetdata platform 102 may then select a transformation that causes the sametransformed data variable to be included in the transformed set of datavariables for the event prediction model being created.

Asset data platform 102 may select the respective set of one or moretransformations to apply to each respective data variable in thefiltered, initial set of data variables in various other manners aswell—including the possibility that the data analytics platform mayselect the respective set of one or more transformations to apply toeach respective data variable in the filtered, initial set of datavariables based on a combination of two or more of the foregoingfactors.

In some embodiments, in addition to applying a respective set of one ormore transformations to each respective data variable in the filtered,initial set of data variables in order to define the transformed set ofdata variables, the data analytics platform may also “pass through” oneor more of the data variables in the filtered, initial set of datavariables, such that the one or more passed-through data variables areincluded in the transformed set of data variables as well. In thisrespect, the data analytics platform may decide whether to “passthrough” a respective data variable in the filtered, initial set of datavariables based on any of various factors, including but not limited tothe factors discussed above (e.g., the classification of the respectivedata variable, the expected behavior of the respective data variable,and/or whether the respective data variable is included as an input datavariable for a comparable event prediction model).

For instance, after applying a respective set of one or moretransformations to each data variable in the filtered, initial set ofdata variables, asset data platform 102 may define a transformed set ofdata variables that includes more, perhaps many more, data variablesthan were included in the filtered, initial set of data variables. Toillustrate using another real-world example, for the engine temperaturedata variable, asset data platform 102 may apply two differenttransformations to this data variable and include these plus apass-through of the initial data variable into the transformed set ofdata variables. By way of example, the transformed set of data variablesmay include: (1) the engine temperature data variable, which is apass-though; (2) average engine temperature over a week's worth of time;and (3) rate of change of engine temperature over a week's worth oftime. Other examples of transformed sets of data variables are possibleas well.

After defining the transformed set of data variables, asset dataplatform 102 may then b optionally classify each respective datavariable in the transformed set of data variables in a manner similar tothat described above for the initial set of data variables. Forinstance, as explained above with respect to block 606, classifying eachrespective data variable in the transformed set of data variables mayinclude, at a minimum, determining, whether each respective datavariable should be classified as a “continuous” data variable or a“categorical” data variable, and perhaps whether each respective datavariable should be further classified under one or more othersub-classifications, such as those set forth in example data variablehierarchy 700 (FIG. 7 ). Because the data variables were classified (atblock 606) prior to asset data platform 102 applying respective sets ofone or more transformations to the data variables, asset data platform102 may assume that the classifications of the transformed datavariables are the same classifications as the underlying data variablesfrom which the data variables were transformed. However, as explained,some transformations may be multi-variable transformations, in which atransformation of a respective data variable replaces the respectivedata variable with a function of (i) the given data variable and (ii)one or more other data variables. For such multi-variabletransformations, asset data platform 102 may classify the transformeddata variable as an additional classification depending on thetransformation. For instance, in the example in which the enginetemperature data variable was transformed to arrive at a ratio ofaverage engine temperature per hour to average battery voltage per hourdata variable, asset data platform 102 may determine that thistransformed data variable should be classified under the voltagesub-classification as well as the temperature sub-classification.

Continuing at block 614, asset data platform 102 may next evaluate theextent to which each respective data variable in the transformed set ofdata variable tends to be predictive of an event occurrence of the giventype, and based on this evaluation, assign to each such data variable arespective difference metric that reflects this predictive tendency.These functions of evaluating and assigning respective differencemetrics to the transformed set of data variables (which may be referredto collectively as “scoring” the transformed set of data variables) maybe carried out in a similar manner to the above-described functions ofevaluating and assigning respective difference metrics to the initialset of data variables.

For instance, asset data platform 102 may begin by obtaining historicalvalues for the transformed set of data values, which may include both(i) historical data values from times that are outside of any eventwindow for any actual event occurrence and (ii) historical data valuesfrom times that are inside an event window for an actual eventoccurrence. In this respect, obtaining the historical values for thetransformed set of data variables may involve deriving such values basedon the historical values of the initial set of data variables. Forexample, if a data variable in the transformed set of data variables isan average of a data variable in the initial set of data variables,asset data platform 102 may derive the historical data values of thedata variable in the transformed set of data variables based on thehistorical values of the data variable in the initial set of datavariables. Alternatively, however, historical values for data variablesin the transformed set may already be available to asset data platform102.

Then, for each respective data variable in the transformed set of datavariables, asset data platform 102 may (a) compare the historical datavalues of the respective data variable that fall outside the model'sevent window to the historical data values of the respective datavariable that fall inside the event window, and (b) based on thiscomparison, derive a respective difference metric that represents theextent to which the historical data values of the respective datavariable changed from outside the event window to inside the eventwindow. In this respect, as above, the particular technique to evaluateand assign the respective difference metrics to the respective datavariables in the transformed set of data variables may vary depending onthe classification of the respective data variables.

Continuing at block 616, after scoring the transformed set of datavariables, asset data platform 102 may next filter the transformed setof data variables based on their respective different metrics to therebyarrive at a filtered, transformed set of data variables that appear tobe most predictive of event occurrences of the given type. Thisfiltering function may be carried out in a similar manner to theabove-described function of filtering the initial set of data variables(e.g., by applying threshold difference metric or selecting a givennumber of data variables having the highest difference metrics).

After filtering the transformed set of data variables, asset dataplatform 102 may then proceed in one of two manners. As one option,asset data platform 102 may decide to conclude theinput-variable-selection process, select the filtered, transformed setof data variables as the set of input variables for the event creationmodel, and proceed to the next phase of the process for creating theevent prediction model (e.g., by evaluating historical data for the setof input variables using a machine learning technique). Alternatively,as another option, asset data platform 102 may decide to continue withthe input-variable-selection process by applying another round oftransformations to the filtered, transformed set of data variables—whichmay produce a second transformed set of data variables—and thenoptionally classifying, scoring, and filtering the second transformedset of data variables in order to produce a filtered, second transformedset of data variables.

In some embodiments, asset data platform 102 may decide to continue withthe input-variable-selection process based on the consideration of oneor more factors, such as (i) an evaluation of how many rounds anexisting event prediction model that shares similarities with the eventprediction model being created (e.g., an existing event prediction modelfor a similar type of event that occurs in another industry) used forits input-variable-selection process; (ii) a comparison of (a) the typeor number of input variables currently selected as input variables inthe current input-variable-selection process to (b) the type or numberof input variables used as input variables in an existing eventprediction model that shares similarities with the event predictionmodel being created (e.g., an existing event prediction model for asimilar type of event that occurs in another industry); (iii) engagingin various optimization routines (such as genetic algorithms orsimulated annealing, among others) designed to measure how well thecurrently-selected filtered, transformed set of data varbales arepredictive of the given event type; or (iv) an evaluation of the totalruntime of the current input-variable-selection process. For instance,the asset data platform 102 may evaluate one or more of the factors setforth above and, based on this evaluation, determine that is shouldengage in at least one more round of transformations to the filtered,transformed set of data variables—which, as explained, may produce asecond transformed set of data variables—and then optionallyclassifying, scoring, and filtering the second transformed set of datavariables in order to produce a filtered, second transformed set of datavariables.

To help illustrate how the selection of the final set of input datavariables may differ from the initial set of data variables, FIG. 8depicts an example data variable space 800, in which circle 802represents the space of all possible data variables available to assetdata platform 102. Region 804 represents the space of data variablesthat, in one example, may have formed the initial set of data variablesselected by the asset data platform 102 at block 604. As explained, insome embodiments, the data variables included within the initial set ofdata variables may be selected by the asset data platform based on userinput, such as user input that may be the result of an SME hypothesis asto which data variables are predictive of the given type of eventoccurrence. And region 806 represents the space of data variables that,in one example, may be included in the final set of filtered,transformed data variables at which the asset data platform arrived viablock 616. As depicted, this region 806 includes some, but not all, ofthe space represented by region 804, and includes some space notrepresented by region 804. This reflects that the disclosed process, insome examples, may arrive at a set of input data variables to use forthe event creation model that is different from an initial set ofvariables selected as the result of an SME hypothesis.

Several variations to the disclosed process are possible as well. Forinstance, as one possible variation of the disclosed process, asset dataplatform 102 may be configured to apply only single-variabletransformations to the filtered, initial set of data variables (asopposed to a combination of single- and multi-variable transformations),but may then be configured to use both single- and multi-variabletransformations if asset data platform 102 proceeds with another roundof transformations for the filtered, transformed set of data variables.As another possible variation, asset data platform may be configured toapply additional filtering during the filtering step 610. For instance,in some variations, prior to filtering the initial set of data variablesat block 610, asset data platform engages in a correlation-determinationstep, whereby asset data platform 102 determines the extent to which anytwo or more data variables in the initial set of data variables arecorrelated with each other. In the event that any two or more datavariables in the initial set of data variables are correlated to atleast a threshold extent, the asset data platform may exclude at leastone of these data variables from further consideration (i.e., the assetdata platform may prevent at least one of these data variables frombeing included in the set of filtered, initial data variables). Further,in some variations, prior to filtering the initial set of data variablesat block 610, the asset data platform 102 engages in a dimensionalityreduction step, such as a principal component analysis step, by whichasset data platform selects certain data variables from the initial setof data variables to exclude from further consideration (i.e., the assetdata platform may prevent such selected data variables from beingincluded in the set of filtered, initial data variables).

Advantageously, the disclosed process for creating event predictionmodels improves upon the existing technology for creating eventprediction models, which suffers from all of the problems discussedabove. For example, unlike the existing technology for creating eventprediction models, the disclosed process utilizes an iterative,data-driven approach for selecting the particular set of input datavariables to use in an event prediction model, which may produce anevent prediction model that renders more accurate, timely predictions.As another example, the disclosed approach may leverage knowledgeregarding the classification of data variables (e.g., as embodied in adata-variable hierarchy) to help improve the iterative, data-drivenapproach for selecting the particular set of input data variables to usein an event prediction model. As yet another example, the disclosedapproach may leverage knowledge regarding existing event predictionmodels to help improve the iterative, data-driven approach for selectingthe particular set of input data variables to use in an event predictionmodel. And as another example, the disclosed approach is relativelyparameterized, and as such, can improve over time as the asset dataplatform engages in subsequent runs. The disclosed process providesseveral other improvements over existing technology as well.

While the disclosed approaches for using a data-driven approach toselecting a specific set of data variables that will be used by theevent prediction model in order to render predictions have beendescribed above for purposes of illustration in the context of an assetdata platform, it should be understood that the disclosed approaches arenot limited to this context. Rather, the disclosed approaches may beused in connection with any event prediction models that are configuredto preemptively predict event occurrences, which may be employed in anyof various technical fields.

V. CONCLUSION

Example embodiments of the disclosed innovations have been describedabove. Those skilled in the art will understand, however, that changesand modifications may be made to the embodiments described withoutdeparting from the true scope and spirit of the present invention, whichwill be defined by the claims.

Further, to the extent that examples described herein involve operationsperformed or initiated by actors, such as “humans”, “operators”, “users”or other entities, this is for purposes of example and explanation only.The claims should not be construed as requiring action by such actorsunless explicitly recited in the claim language.

The invention claimed is:
 1. A computing system comprising: acommunication interface; at least one processor; a non-transitorycomputer-readable medium; and program instructions stored on thenon-transitory computer-readable medium that are executable by the atleast one processor to cause the computing system to perform functionscomprising: selecting an initial set of data variables to consider foruse as input variables of a given event prediction model that is topredict event occurrences of a given type; for each respective datavariable in the initial set of data variables, (i) obtaining arespective set of historical data values of the respective data variablethat includes a first subset of historical data values from times thatare outside of any event window for any actual event occurrence and asecond subset of historical data values from times that are inside anevent window for an actual event occurrence, and (ii) determining arespective difference metric that indicates an extent to which the firstsubset of historical data values differ from the second subset ofhistorical data values; applying a respective set of one or moretransformations to each of at least two data variables in the initialset of data variables and thereby defining a transformed set of datavariables; for each respective data variable in the transformed set ofdata variables, (i) obtaining a respective set of historical data valuesof the respective data variable that includes a first subset ofhistorical data values from times that are outside of any event windowfor any actual event occurrence and a second subset of historical datavalues from times that are inside an event window for an actual eventoccurrence, and (ii) determining a respective difference metric thatindicates an extent to which the first subset of historical data valuesdiffer from the second subset of historical data values; based on therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in thetransformed set of data variables, filtering the transformed set of datavariables down to a filtered, transformed set of data variables; usingthe filtered, transformed set of data variables as a basis for selectingthe input variables of the event prediction model, outputting by theevent prediction model, based on the filtered, transformed set of datavariables, a predicted event occurrence of a given type.
 2. Thecomputing system of claim 1 further comprising: based on the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the initial setof data variables, filtering the initial set of data variables down tothe initial set of data variables, wherein the initial set of variablescomprises a filtered initial set of data variables, wherein filteringthe initial set of data variables down to the filtered, initial set ofdata variables based on the respective difference metrics for therespective data variables in the initial set of data variables comprisesone of (a) filtering the initial set of data variables down to afiltered, initial set of data variables that includes any data variablein the initial set of data variables having a respective differencemetric that is greater than or equal to a threshold difference metric or(b) sorting the initial set of data variables based on the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the initial setof data variables to a sorted, initial set of data variables such thatthe data variables in the sorted, initial set of data variables aresorted from a highest difference metric to a lowest difference metric,and then filtering the sorted, initial set of data variables down to afiltered, initial set of data variables that includes a given number ofdata variables that are within a top one or more of the data variablesin the sorted, initial set of data variables.
 3. The computing system ofclaim 1, further comprising program instructions stored on thenon-transitory computer-readable medium that are executable by the atleast one processor to cause the computing system to perform functionscomprising: while applying the respective set of one or moretransformations to each of at least two data variables in the initialset of data variables, passing through at least one data variable in theinitial set of data variables for inclusion in the transformed set ofdata variables.
 4. The computing system of claim 1, further comprisingprogram instructions stored on the non-transitory computer-readablemedium that are executable by the at least one processor to cause thecomputing system to perform functions comprising: before determining therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables, determining a respective classificationof each respective data variable in the initial set of data variables,and wherein the respective classifications of the data variables in theinitial set of data variables are used as a basis for determining therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables.
 5. The computing system of claim 4,further comprising program instructions stored on the non-transitorycomputer-readable medium that are executable by the at least oneprocessor to cause the computing system to perform functions comprising:prior to applying the respective set of one or more transformations toeach of the at least two data variables in the initial set of datavariables, selecting the respective set of one or more transformationsto apply to each of the at least two data variables in the initial setof data variables based on one or more of (i) the respectiveclassification of the data variable, (ii) data indicating an expectedbehavior of the data variable in advance of an event occurrence of thegiven type, or (iii) an evaluation of an existing event prediction modelthat shares similarities with the given event prediction model.
 6. Thecomputing system of claim 1, further comprising program instructionsstored on the non-transitory computer-readable medium that areexecutable by the at least one processor to cause the computing systemto perform functions comprising: before determining the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the transformedset of data variables, determining a respective classification of eachrespective data variable in the transformed set of data variables, andwherein the respective classifications of the data variables in thetransformed set of data variables are used as a basis for determiningthe respective difference metrics for the respective data variables inthe transformed set of data variables.
 7. The computing system of claim1, wherein using the filtered, transformed set of data variables as abasis for selecting the input variables of the event prediction modelcomprises: selecting the filtered, transformed set of data variables foruse as the input variables of the event prediction model.
 8. Thecomputing system of claim 1, wherein using the filtered, transformed setof data variables as a basis for selecting the input variables of theevent prediction model comprises: applying a respective set of one ormore transformations to each of at least two data variables in thefiltered, transformed set of data variables and thereby defining asecond transformed set of data variables; for each respective datavariable in the second transformed set of data variables, obtaining arespective set of historical data values of the respective data variablethat includes a first subset of historical data values from times thatare outside of any event window for any actual event occurrence and asecond subset of historical data values from times that are inside anevent window for an actual event occurrence, and (ii) determining arespective difference metric that indicates an extent to which the firstsubset of historical data values differ from the second subset ofhistorical data values; based on the respective difference metrics forthe respective data variables in the second transformed set of datavariables, filtering the second transformed set of data variables downto a filtered, second transformed set of data variables; and selectingthe filtered, second transformed set of data variables for use as theinput variables of the event prediction model.
 9. The computing systemof claim 1, wherein the respective set of one or more transformationsapplied to a given data variable in the initial set of data variablescomprises a function of the given data variable and one or moreadditional data variables.
 10. The computing system of claim 1, whereinobtaining the respective set of historical data values of a given datavariable in the transformed set of data variables comprises deriving thehistorical data values of the given data variable in the transformed setof data variables based on the respective set of historical data valuesof one of the data variables in the initial set of data variables.
 11. Amethod performed by a computing system, the method comprising: selectingan initial set of data variables to consider for use as input variablesof a given event prediction model that is to predict event occurrencesof a given type; for each respective data variable in the initial set ofdata variables, (i) obtaining a respective set of historical data valuesof the respective data variable that includes a first subset ofhistorical data values from times that are outside of any event windowfor any actual event occurrence and a second subset of historical datavalues from times that are inside an event window for an actual eventoccurrence, and (ii) determining a respective difference metric thatindicates an extent to which the first subset of historical data valuesdiffer from the second subset of historical data values; applying arespective set of one or more transformations to each of at least twodata variables in the initial set of data variables and thereby defininga transformed set of data variables; for each respective data variablein the transformed set of data variables, (i) obtaining a respective setof historical data values of the respective data variable that includesa first subset of historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and a second subset ofhistorical data values from times that are inside an event window for anactual event occurrence, and (ii) determining a respective differencemetric that indicates an extent to which the first subset of historicaldata values differ from the second subset of historical data values;based on the respective difference metrics for the respective datavariables in the transformed set of data variables, filtering thetransformed set of data variables down to a filtered, transformed set ofdata variables; using the filtered, transformed set of data variables asa basis for selecting the input variables of the event prediction model;and outputting by the event prediction model, based on the filtered,transformed set of data variables, a predicted event occurrence of agiven type.
 12. The method of claim 11, further comprising based on therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables, filtering the initial set of datavariables down to the initial set of data variables, wherein the initialset of variables comprises a filtered initial set of data variables,wherein filtering the initial set of data variables down to thefiltered, initial set of data variables based on the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the initial setof data variables comprises one of (a) filtering the initial set of datavariables down to a filtered, initial set of data variables thatincludes any data variable in the initial set of data variables having arespective difference metric that is greater than or equal to athreshold difference metric or (b) sorting the initial set of datavariables based on the respective difference metrics for the respectivedata variables in the initial set of data variables to a sorted, initialset of data variables such that the data variables in the sorted,initial set of data variables are sorted from a highest differencemetric to a lowest difference metric, and then filtering the sorted,initial set of data variables down to a filtered, initial set of datavariables that includes a given number of data variables that are withina top one or more of the data variables in the sorted, initial set ofdata variables.
 13. The method of claim 11, further comprising: whileapplying the respective set of one or more transformations to each of atleast two data variables in the initial set of data variables, passingthrough at least one data variable in the initial set of data variablesfor inclusion in the transformed set of data variables.
 14. The methodof claim 11, further comprising: before determining the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the initial setof data variables, determining a respective classification of eachrespective data variable in the initial set of data variables, andwherein the respective classifications of the data variables in theinitial set of data variables are used as a basis for determining therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables.
 15. The method of claim 11, wherein usingthe filtered, transformed set of data variables as a basis for selectingthe input variables of the event prediction model comprises: applying arespective set of one or more transformations to each of at least twodata variables in the filtered, transformed set of data variables andthereby defining a second transformed set of data variables; for eachrespective data variable in the second transformed set of datavariables, obtaining a respective set of historical data values of therespective data variable that includes a first subset of historical datavalues from times that are outside of any event window for any actualevent occurrence and a second subset of historical data values fromtimes that are inside an event window for an actual event occurrence,and (ii) determining a respective difference metric that indicates anextent to which the first subset of historical data values differ fromthe second subset of historical data values; based on the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the secondtransformed set of data variables, filtering the second transformed setof data variables down to a filtered, second transformed set of datavariables; and selecting the filtered, second transformed set of datavariables for use as the input variables of the event prediction model.16. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having programinstructions stored thereon that are executable to cause a computingsystem to: select an initial set of data variables to consider for useas input variables of a given event prediction model that is to predictevent occurrences of a given type; for each respective data variable inthe initial set of data variables, (i) obtain a respective set ofhistorical data values of the respective data variable that includes afirst subset of historical data values from times that are outside ofany event window for any actual event occurrence and a second subset ofhistorical data values from times that are inside an event window for anactual event occurrence, and (ii) determine a respective differencemetric that indicates an extent to which the first subset of historicaldata values differ from the second subset of historical data values;apply a respective set of one or more transformations to each of atleast two data variables in the initial set of data variables andthereby defining a transformed set of data variables; for eachrespective data variable in the transformed set of data variables, (i)obtain a respective set of historical data values of the respective datavariable that includes a first subset of historical data values fromtimes that are outside of any event window for any actual eventoccurrence and a second subset of historical data values from times thatare inside an event window for an actual event occurrence, and (ii)determine a respective difference metric that indicates an extent towhich the first subset of historical data values differ from the secondsubset of historical data values; based on the respective differencemetrics for the respective data variables in the transformed set of datavariables, filter the transformed set of data variables down to afiltered, transformed set of data variables; and use the filtered,transformed set of data variables as a basis for selecting the inputvariables of the event prediction model; and output by the eventprediction model, based on the filtered, transformed set of datavariables, a predicted event occurrence of a given type.
 17. Thenon-transitory computer-readable storage medium of claim 16, wherein theprogram instructions are further executable to cause the computingsystem to based on the respective difference metrics for the respectivedata variables in the initial set of data variables, filtering theinitial set of data variables down to the initial set of data variables,wherein the initial set of variables comprises a filtered initial set ofdata variables, wherein filtering the initial set of data variables downto a filtered, initial set of data variables based on the respectivedifference metrics for the respective data variables in the initial setof data variables comprises one of (a) filtering the initial set of datavariables down to a filtered, initial set of data variables thatincludes any data variable in the initial set of data variables having arespective difference metric that is greater than or equal to athreshold difference metric or (b) sorting the initial set of datavariables based on the respective difference metrics for the respectivedata variables in the initial set of data variables to a sorted, initialset of data variables such that the data variables in the sorted,initial set of data variables are sorted from a highest differencemetric to a lowest difference metric, and then filtering the sorted,initial set of data variables down to a filtered, initial set of datavariables that includes a given number of data variables that are withina top one or more of the data variables in the sorted, initial set ofdata variables.
 18. The non-transitory computer-readable storage mediumof claim 16, wherein the program instructions are further executable tocause a computing system to: while applying the respective set of one ormore transformations to each of at least two data variables in theinitial set of data variables, pass through at least one data variablein the initial set of data variables for inclusion in the transformedset of data variables.
 19. The non-transitory computer-readable storagemedium of claim 16, wherein the program instructions are furtherexecutable to cause a computing system to: before determining therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables, determine a respective classification ofeach respective data variable in the initial set of data variables, andwherein the respective classifications of the data variables in theinitial set of data variables are used as a basis for determining therespective difference metrics for the respective data variables in theinitial set of data variables.
 20. The non-transitory computer-readablestorage medium of claim 16, wherein using the filtered, transformed setof data variables as a basis for selecting the input variables of theevent prediction model comprises: applying a respective set of one ormore transformations to each of at least two data variables in thefiltered, transformed set of data variables and thereby defining asecond transformed set of data variables; for each respective datavariable in the second transformed set of data variables, obtaining arespective set of historical data values of the respective data variablethat includes a first subset of historical data values from times thatare outside of any event window for any actual event occurrence and asecond subset of historical data values from times that are inside anevent window for an actual event occurrence, and (ii) determining arespective difference metric that indicates an extent to which the firstsubset of historical data values differ from the second subset ofhistorical data values; based on the respective difference metrics forthe respective data variables in the second transformed set of datavariables, filtering the second transformed set of data variables downto a filtered, second transformed set of data variables; and selectingthe filtered, second transformed set of data variables for use as theinput variables of the event prediction model.